By Kevin D. Williamson
Tuesday, July 26, 2022
In New York City, homicides so far
this year are running a bit below their 2021 level, and in 2021 they were 78
percent lower than they were in 1990 and a quarter lower than they were in
2001.
That’s true, but I don’t think “New York City has fewer
murders today than it did in the year when it had more murders than at any
other point in its entire history” is as compelling an argument as Professor
Krugman seems to think.
The 488 murders New York listed in 2021 are a lot fewer
than it had in 1990, but a lot more than New York had in 2017 or 2018, years in which the numbers of murders were below 300. New
York had thousands more felony assaults in 2021 than in
2020, thousands more grand-larceny offenses, about a thousand
more vehicle thefts, etc. Total numbers matter a great deal, but so does direction.
Professor Krugman is writing about New York crime’s role
in the national political conversation, and New York is pretty unremarkable on
a population-adjusted basis. Beyond that, there are some more interesting comparisons.
In recent years, New York has had a much lower murder rate than, say, St. Paul
or San Antonio. But does New York, which boasts of being a city of global
significance, really compare itself to St. Paul? Because New York’s murder rate
is about twice London’s, six times Zurich’s, 17 times Singapore’s, and about 40
times Dubai’s, if you believe the official numbers.
Marseille, often cited as one of Europe’s most dangerous
cities, has a lower murder rate than Madison, Wis., and a murder rate about
half of Sacramento’s. Salt Lake City is more dangerous.
For all of our political crazy-talk, people in New York
are a lot more like people in Fort Worth than the people of either city are
like the people in Geneva, Edinburgh, or Abu Dhabi. We are Americans, and we
are an extraordinarily violent people by most measures.
As the New York Times reports, the U.S.
murder rate spiked almost 30 percent in 2020. It is inaccurate to make New York
the poster city for American crime, but it is far from irrational for Americans
to be concerned about the direction of crime in recent years.
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