By Jim Geraghty
Friday, July 01, 2022
Right now Democrats are talking themselves into believing that they can mitigate the red wave of the midterms by focusing on abortion, gun control, and January 6.
One of their many problems is that Americans will regularly get fresh reminders about the other issues that are driving their irritation with the Biden administration — and not just every time they fill up their tank with gas or go shopping for groceries. Once a month, new Consumer Price Index numbers come out, reminding the country of just how high inflation is. Once a month, new U.S. Customs and Border Protection numbers come out, reminding Americans that hundreds of thousands of migrants are attempting to enter the country illegally each month.
And on July 28, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the newest gross domestic product numbers. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow measure, which tracks economic data in real time and adjusts continuously, expects second-quarter output to contract by 1 percent. This week the BEA offered its adjusted numbers for the first quarter, finding the U.S. economy decreased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent last quarter, a little worse than the earlier assessment of 1.5 percent. Two consecutive quarters of decline is traditionally defined as a recession.
There is a good chance that on the morning of July 29, the headline will be, “U.S. NOW IN RECESSION.”
Are there voters out there who will be more concerned about abortion, gun control, and the events of January 6? Sure. But those voters will be dwarfed by the number of voters who are irate about runaway inflation, high gas prices, high food prices, difficulty finding infant formula, lingering supply-chain problems, shrinking 401(k)s and the market, dwindling savings, and on top of all that, an economic recession.
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