By Matthew Continetti
Saturday, January 08, 2022
The most impassioned speech of Joe Biden’s
presidency was about events that took place before it began. I’m talking
about the president’s remarks on the first anniversary of the January
6, 2021, riot at the Capitol. The energy, force, and direction of Biden’s
delivery have been missing from practically every address he’s made since his
inauguration. The Biden who spoke from Statuary Hall on Thursday was not his
usual self — listless, reactive, defensive, and confused. This Biden was angry
and purposeful and on the attack.
True, it was a partisan speech. How could it not have
been? The driving force behind the events of January 6 was a Republican president
who remains the most important figure in his party. Many Republicans will
accuse Biden of divisiveness. They will say he ignored the faults of his own
side. Well, sorry, but what did you expect? Biden was lively and pointed
because public opinion is with him. A majority says the 2020 election was legitimate. A
plurality blames Trump for the mob assault on the Capitol. Fifty-nine percent
of adults don’t want Trump to run for president in 2024. When
Trump is the issue, Biden wins.
And Biden’s troubles start. Trump for now is the least of
his worries. Trump is on the sidelines. He’s out of office. He’s banned from
social media. He doesn’t figure in the everyday lives of most Americans. He
won’t be on the ballot this November. A White House midterm strategy based on
portraying GOP candidates as Q-Anon shamans ready to storm the Capitol won’t
work. The hundreds of state and local campaigns will be too diverse. The
candidates will be too distinct. And public anger over the economy, the
pandemic, the schools, the border, and the cities will matter most of all.
Biden’s January 6 speech was a reminder that he’s a
placeholder president. He’s in office because independent voters in the suburbs
rejected Donald Trump’s personality and Donald Trump’s response to the
coronavirus. No one expected — or wanted — Biden to be a world-historical
statesman. Biden himself said he’s a “transitional” figure with a singular
goal: Keep Trump away from the White House. He accomplished that task, which is
why he began his presidency with healthy approval ratings. The electorate didn’t sour
on him until he took on additional employment: live-action role-playing FDR and
LBJ, dismantling immigration protocols on the southern border, deferring to
public-health experts and regulatory bodies, and midwifing the Taliban
reconquest of Afghanistan. Now Biden is at 43-percent approval in the FiveThirtyEight average
of polls.
Biden’s dilemma is that “I’m not Trump” is a winning
message only when Trump is on the ballot, holds office, or is tied to a major
event such as January 6. The message doesn’t work on the other 364 days of the
year. If Biden had grasped why he became president, he would have pursued a
modest agenda directed at the independents who elected him. He would have
sounded and acted more like Governor Jared Polis than like Senator Elizabeth
Warren. Instead, Biden has catered to the Left at the expense of the center.
He’s at odds with the median voter as he fails to control the coronavirus,
inflation, the border, and events overseas. His domestic agenda is stalled. And
the Democratic congressional majority is at risk.
But not all is lost. A GOP Congress in 2023 may provide
Biden with a rationale to shake up his staff, work with Senator Mitch
McConnell, and distinguish himself from the cultural Left. And the 2024 cycle
may not be as good for Republicans as the 2022 cycle is shaping up to be. The
last two Democratic presidents won reelection during periods of divided
government. The mix of issues may be different. And Biden will be able to play
his “I’m not Trump” card if the former president enters the presidential race
and wins the GOP nomination.
Listening to Biden speak Thursday, I kept thinking of his
recent interview with David Muir of ABC News. When asked if he’ll run for
reelection, Biden gave the only answer possible: Yes. But he added an escape
hatch when he said that his health would be the deciding factor. Then Muir
asked Biden if Trump’s decision would shape his 2024 calculus. And the
president became animated. He sounded as engaged as he was on January 6.
“You’re trying to tempt me now,” he said. “Sure. Why would I not run against Donald Trump for
the nominee? That’ll increase the prospect of running.”
Biden has seen the Democratic bench. He works with Vice
President Kamala Harris. He understands that despite everything, he remains the
Democrats’ best chance of preventing a second Trump term. Joe Biden is an
unpopular, unloved, and ineffective president. But he’s beaten Donald Trump
once and isn’t wrong to think he might do it again. He won’t transform America.
He might keep his job for a while longer if voters don’t like their options.
That’s what a placeholder does.
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