By Noah Rothman
Thursday, January 27, 2022
Among conservatives who fancy themselves populists, a
beloved conceit—indeed, a primary source of identity—is that it is they who
represent the sentiments of most Republican voters. This presumption informs their
attempts to lobby against the West’s ongoing efforts to deter Russia from
executing another land-grab in Europe and possibly starting a disastrous war on
the continent in the process. That, they insist, is what the folks in Real
America want. For all the populists’ bluster, though, the Real Americans for
whom they presume to speak don’t seem to agree.
“Republicans running in high-profile primary races aren’t
racing to defend Ukraine against a possible Russian invasion,” Axios reported on Thursday. “They’re settling on a
different line of attack: Blame Biden, not Putin.” But the populist activist
class does not “blame Biden” for rewarding Putin’s aggression with summitry and
sanctions relief, which has emboldened the revisionist autocrat in Moscow. No,
the nationalists are promoting the convoluted idea that any effort to contain
an expansionist Russia is not just reckless but a product of darker ulterior
motives only they can deduce.
From television personalities like Tucker Carlson to GOP
candidates like Blake Masters, J.D. Vance, and Bernie Moreno, among others,
self-styled populists are supposedly “leery” of offending GOP voters by
advocating a harder line against Russian aggression. “GOP operatives working in
2022 primary races tell Axios they worry they’ll alienate the base if they push
to commit American resources or troops to help Ukraine fight Russia,” Axios
concludes. It is entirely unclear what “base” they’re talking about. All
evidence suggests the populists are courting a Republican voting “base” they’ve
made up in their own minds.
A Pew Research Center survey published this week found
that there is virtual bipartisan unanimity in this country over the potential
threat a Russian invasion of Ukraine presents to American interests and the
need to prevent that outcome. Indeed, Republicans are slightly more likely than
Democrats to understand what’s at stake. That poll found that only 9 percent of
Republicans viewed Russia as a “partner.” Thirty-nine percent of self-described
GOP voters labeled the country an “enemy,” and a majority called it a
“competitor.” Similar shares of Democrats and Republicans describe Russia’s
military buildup on Ukraine’s borders as a “major threat” to American interests
(26 and 27 percent, respectively). Another 36 percent of Republicans say these
events represent a “minor threat,” joined by 33 percent of Democrats. Indeed,
Republicans are six points more likely than Democrats to say they know
precisely how Russian brinkmanship affects U.S. interests.
This sentiment among GOP voters didn’t materialize
overnight. A June 2021 CBS News/YouGov survey produced results similar to
Pew’s. That poll, which was taken in the wake of another Russian buildup on the
Ukrainian border that was only defused after Biden agreed to a bilateral summit
with the Russian leader, found 62 percent of Republicans describing Putin as
either “unfriendly” or “an enemy.” Fifty-seven percent of GOP voters said Biden
had been “too friendly” toward Moscow, and a staggering two-thirds of GOP
voters agreed with the idea that the president “should take a tough stand”
against the Kremlin. In that poll, only 14 percent of Republicans had a “favorable”
impression of Putin.
To all this, the good-faith populist-nationalist
conservative might say, “so what?” Even if their views aren’t popular among
Republican voters, the policy they prefer is the right one. There’s nothing
wrong with advocating unpopular positions you believe best advance American
interests (I
do that all the time). Yet, the nationalist front’s loudest voices never
entertain the notion that theirs is a minority view because to do so would be
to commit to persuading voters rather than hectoring their fellow
conservatives. Instead, they rely on ponderously elaborate heuristics that
simplify a complicated conflict abroad and expose the motives of their
political opponents at home. In fact, they’ve only confused the issue and, it
seems, their conservative audiences.
The narrative preferred by the nationalist right is one
that maintains any efforts to deter Russian aggression in Europe all but commit
the United States to war with Russia. Few distinctions are made between
preemptive economic sanctions, the provision of lethal and non-lethal aid to
Ukraine, or the deployment of NATO forces to NATO-aligned nations that border
what could soon become the front lines—none of which constitute a commitment to
defend Ukraine against a Russian attack. To make those distinctions would
demonstrate the illogic of their position, which rests on the idea that
preventing war in Europe authorizes America’s participation in one.
It’s a slippery slope argument, and that is how slippery
slope arguments work; they elide how you get from point A to point B. Indeed,
point B—a shooting war with a preeminent nuclear power—is universally
recognized as an undesirable outcome. The nationalists have assumed the slope
into existence, but they have not convinced conservatives that mitigating this
threat is worse than the threat itself.
When members of this contingent aren’t trying to convince
their audience that deterring war is equivalent to starting one, they maintain
that the only reason anyone is interested in preserving peace on the European
continent is because they are irrationally invested in cultural combat with
their fellow Americans. Columbia University research fellow Richard Hanania provides us with an example of this
sort of analysis, which has garnered the praise of the populist right. He adopts
the Obama-esque argument that elites—Democrats and Republicans alike—are “stuck
in the 1980s.” They are only hawkish toward Russia because it has anti-gay
statutes on the books. Consciously or otherwise, America’s political
influencers are so obsessed with identity politics that it has led them to
subordinate American interests and grand strategy to their desire to wage
domestic cultural combat in proxy theaters abroad.
If there was a better real-world example of psychological
projection, I’m not familiar with it.
It’s surely the populist right’s hope that they will
persuade the rest of the right to believe that Joe Biden has been too
hard on Vladimir Putin. But this advocacy has exposed the extent to
which the nationalists do not speak for the silent majority of Republican
voters. They have so far failed to convince the “base” that the threat posed by
Russian aggression is simultaneously a myth and a menace that can be
neutralized if only we yelled at our fellow Republicans more. For now, the
“base” remains beholden to a conventionally conservative belief in preserving
the peace by demonstrating the capacity and willingness to impose costs on
those who would threaten it.
Thus, it is the nationalist right that has lost touch
with average Republican voters and fails to represent their interests. Indeed,
they are contemptuous of those voters and their stated policy preferences.
Perhaps they will take the very cues they have been demanding conventional
conservatives take for the better part of a decade, internalize their own
irrelevance, and get out of the way.
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