National Review Online
Tuesday, September 21, 2021
President Biden’s sweeping domestic
agenda is floundering as Democrats struggle to hold competing factions of
their party together. House Republicans should not come to the rescue.
Democrats are in a bind because they have
grand ambitions of transforming the United States by dramatically expanding the
social safety net, but the American people only gave them slim majorities. They
are attempting to forge a path forward by more or less simultaneously passing
two pieces of legislation — a $550 billion infrastructure bill that passed with
Republican support in the Senate, and a $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill (into
which they are trying to cram Biden’s entire domestic agenda). More moderate
Democrats are becoming increasingly alarmed at the price tag of the massive
social-welfare bill, while progressives have been insistent that they would not
support the smaller infrastructure bill if the larger one doesn’t also pass.
This conflict, which has been building for months, is about to reach an
inflection point.
House speaker Nancy Pelosi promised
moderate House Democrats that the chamber would consider the smaller bipartisan
bill by next Monday, September 27. Progressives claim they have the votes to
block it, absent agreement on the massive $3.5 trillion package, which does not
appear to be close to final. But now moderates are flexing their muscles, too —
arguing that if Pelosi reneges on holding the vote, they will bail on the
bigger bill. Meanwhile, according to Politico, Senator Kyrsten
Sinema privately told Biden that “if the House delays its scheduled Sept. 27 vote
on the bipartisan infrastructure plan — or if the vote fails — she won’t be
backing a reconciliation bill.”
In a 50–50 Senate, Sinema has the
ability to tank any piece of legislation. And Pelosi can lose no more
than three votes, which means less than a handful of moderates or progressives
could tank any legislation. But there is one group of people that could make it
much easier for Pelosi to get out of this jam — and that is House Republicans.
If a critical mass of House Republicans end up voting for the smaller
infrastructure bill, then it would allow Pelosi to pass the bill even while
losing progressives, and it would pave the way for Democrats to strike a
bargain among themselves on the larger reconciliation bill.
We repeatedly warned Senate Republicans
that it was a bad idea to negotiate with Democrats on an infrastructure bill,
which was not only reckless at a time of historic debt, but obviously tied to
the even-worse $3.5 trillion bill. Yet 19 of them voted for it anyway, and a
number of House Republicans have indicated a desire to do the same. But the
argument for Republicans to vote for the bill has become even weaker. Beyond
the policy considerations, for House Republicans to save Pelosi from navigating
the difficult dynamics of a divided caucus by providing her the votes she needs
would be political malpractice. The back and forth between progressives and
moderate Democrats over the past few weeks has underscored the fact that the
two bills are inextricably linked. Any Republican who votes for the smaller
infrastructure bill is making the passage of the larger reconciliation bill
more likely.
In the reconciliation bill, Democrats want
the government to pay for child care, universal pre-K, and community college.
At a time when the current system is going broke, they want to add dental and
vision coverage to Medicare. And they want to use it as a vehicle to advance
their destructive Green New Deal environmental policies. They have proposed
more than $2 trillion in taxes, but even that won’t cover all their spending,
likely meaning more debt.
With Biden’s approval ratings tumbling and
the nation reeling from his botched handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal, the
border crisis, and the vaccine-booster rollout, on top of his daily miscues, it
is understandable why he is desperate for a win. But there is no reason for
House Republicans to help him get it.
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