By Victor Davis Hanson
Thursday, November 14, 2019
From 1967 to 2019, Republicans controlled the California
governorship for 31 of 52 years. So why is there currently not a single
statewide Republican officeholder? California also has a Democratic governor
and Democratic supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature. Only
seven of California’s 53 congressional seats are held by Republicans.
In 1994, then-governor Pete Wilson backed Proposition
187, which denied state social services to undocumented immigrants. The spin
goes that it backfired and alienated the Hispanic community, and thus marked
the road to Republican perdition.
Not quite.
Prop 187 passed with 59 percent support. Wilson’s
endorsement of the bill helped its passage, and his support of it aided his
landslide 1994 reelection. Among minority voters, 52 percent of Asian and
African-American voters supported Proposition 187. Some 27 percent of Latinos
voted for it.
Liberal groups immediately sued in federal court. Just
three days after the measure passed, a federal judge issued a temporary
restraining order preventing Proposition 187 from going into effect. A month
later, U.S. district judge Mariana Pfaelzer issued a permanent injunction. Prop
187 never became law.
In effect, two judges nullified the wishes of more than 5
million California voters.
Arnold Schwarzenegger had supported Prop 187. Yet in 2003
he was elected governor. So what caused the Republican demise?
Ironically, radical changes in California demography may
have been brought about by Prop 187 — but not in the way many people think.
The state’s population has increased by nearly 10 million
in the last quarter century. Yet the growth has been marked by the exodus of
some and larger influxes of others.
When Prop 187 passed, there were an estimated 1.5 million
undocumented immigrants statewide. In the 25 years since, millions of others
have entered the state, and the current number of those still undocumented
exceeds 3 million.
Some 27 percent of current California residents were not
born in the U.S. Traditionally, first-generation immigrants favor larger, not
smaller, government.
A cynic might argue that once a federal judge allowed
undocumented immigrants to enjoy the full array of state services and
entitlements, there were incentives for millions of other immigrants to enter
the U.S. illegally, and California in particular.
Statistics suggests they did just that — often to the
chagrin of Democratic politicians, the United Farm Workers, and other liberal
groups who worried about the negative effects of illegal immigration on
entry-level wages, unionization, and poor citizens’ access to overtaxed social
services.
Oddly, conservative businesspeople were likely to favor
permissive immigration policies in hopes of finding an ample supply of low-cost
laborers while simultaneously diminishing the power of unions.
A technological revolution sparked a lucrative Silicon
Valley renaissance. Suddenly, coastal California became one of the wealthiest
corridors in the history of the planet. Big Tech drew in hundreds of thousands
of hip young workers eager to come to California and join what was thought to
be a global revolution.
Silicon Valley was seen as a uniquely progressive
corporate paradise where one could get rich and stay woke all at once. Most
techies supported big government, higher taxes, and open borders, and had the
money and wherewithal to not worry much about the ensuing costs and the
catastrophic results for others.
By the turn of the century, the California treasury was
relying on the tech industry for an enormous share of the taxes to fund its
massive expansion of state services — and politicians often bowed to Big Tech’s
political wishes.
As taxes climbed, schools eroded, and funds for
infrastructure were diverted elsewhere, millions of middle-class Californians
fled. The total numbers of this continuing exodus are still in dispute. Many
left in despair over climbing gas, sales and income taxes that seemed to worsen
rather improve state infrastructure and services.
This tripartite demographic revolution proved disastrous
for the Republican party. The GOP lost much of its base to other states. Many
conservative voters left for small-government, low-tax alternatives. Republican
efforts to reduce taxes, limit some abortions, and fund additional roads and
dams had little appeal to the new gentry classes on the coast.
Will there ever again be a viable California Republican
party?
After three decades of radical progressivism, California
residents are tiring of one-party straitjacket rule. The hard-liberal order
normalized massive power blackouts, the nation’s highest array of taxes, the
forest mismanagement that fuels deadly fires, an epidemic of homelessness in
major cities, eroding schools, ossified infrastructure, and soaring energy
costs.
The final irony?
Those most hurt — and growing the most angry — are the
immigrants who once fled to a different California that now no longer exists.
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