By Seth J. Frantzman
Tuesday, September 17, 2019
A sophisticated drone and cruise-missile attack on Saudi
Arabia’s largest oil-processing facility on Saturday has sent shock waves
through the world’s oil markets and leaves the U.S. and allies at a crossroads
about how to deal with a growing threat from Iran and its supporters. This is
the crisis Iran has been waiting for, with pro-regime media tweeting about the
“unprecedented attack” and parroting the threats of Yemen’s Houthi rebels
against Saudi oil infrastructure.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said Iran was behind
the attack, and U.S. officials have released satellite images and spoken to
media about details of the sophisticated assault. The attack showcases Iran’s
precision weapons guidance. This is a threat that has been increasing for
years. The 2019 National Defense Authorization Act apprised Congress of Iran’s
ballistic-missile program and drones. Israel also warned about similar threats
in early September, asserting that Iran was transferring precision missile
guidance to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has been boasting about its drone,
cruise-missile, and precision munitions since a large drill it undertook in
March.
However, Tehran has also been stymied in how to employ
its arsenal, weighing the responses it wants to give in the wake of the U.S.
withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran deal, in
May 2018. For a year Iran used its good-cop, bad-cop routine, threatening to
walk away from provisions of the deal if European and other countries didn’t
work to get around Washington’s sanctions. But in May Tehran changed tactics.
As sanctions took a bite, Tehran intimated that if Iran couldn’t export oil,
neither would others. Washington has accused Iran of being behind the sabotage
of six ships in May and June as well as the downing of a U.S. drone in June.
Rockets also fell near U.S. bases in Iraq. Iran has also worked through its
Houthi rebel allies in Yemen to supply know-how behind drone and air-defense
technology. Pompeo says Iran is behind at least 100 attacks originating in
Yemen.
All this was window dressing for the more massive
long-range attack that was to come this week. Two previous long-range attacks
had targeted oil facilities west of Riyadh and near the border with the United
Arab Emirates. In the latter attack, Iran’s Press TV claimed ten Yemeni drones
had been responsible. The early hours of September 14 showed fires and
explosions at Abqaiq. Satellite images revealed damage to almost 20 buildings,
including liquified-natural-gas storage tanks. The damage wasn’t chaotic, as it
would have been if someone tossed explosives and hoped they would hit their
mark. Rather it was precise; one image shows four storage tanks hit in the same
location.
This level of precision is important. As salient was the
ability of a force purported to include dozens of drones and cruise missiles to
evade air-defense systems in eastern Saudi Arabia near Bahrain. This should be
an area, not far from the U.S. naval base in Bahrain and the Al-Udeid base in
Qatar, as well as U.S. bases in the UAE and Kuwait, that would be well
defended. Whether the attack originated directly from Iran or from Iran-backed
Houthis, either scenario shows how extremely proficient Iran and its allies
have become with drones and missiles. This is an indigenous weapons program
that outpaces Iran’s nearest neighbors, with the exception of Israel. It is a
threat that requires U.S. air defense and radar to help confront. The larger
question for the Trump administration is not just about defending allies, but
also about whether it wants to try to deter Iran. Despite warnings since May
that Iranian actions would meet with retaliation, Washington has been reticent
to retaliate militarily, preferring a campaign of “maximum pressure.” It is
hard to ignore the Iranian regime’s pronouncements on September 10 that the
departure of National Security Advisor John Bolton showed that the U.S. had
failed in its pressure campaign. It is also hard to believe that the
sophisticated Abqaiq attack was planned in only four days.
Tehran would have known that an unprecedented attack on
key Saudi Arabian oil facilities by so many drones would raise eyebrows about
claims that the poor and isolated Houthi rebels were behind it. The attack
sends a clear message: This can get worse; end the sanctions and don’t risk the
world’s oil supply. Iran thinks that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies won’t
risk a conflict, and the Iranians think they called the Trump administration’s
bluff in June. September 14 was a gamble but also a clear message felt across
the Middle East. The era of Iran’s sophisticated precision-guided drone and
cruise-missile attacks is here.
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