By Madeleine Kearns
Tuesday, September 03, 2019
From inception, the Boris Johnson premiership meant high
risk and high reward — both for the country and for Brexit. The intensity and
imminence of that risk have never been greater.
Due to the defection of Phillip Lee, the Tories no longer
have a parliamentary majority. Lee summarized how other Tory rebels are feeling
in his public statement:
This Conservative Government is aggressively
pursuing a damaging Brexit in unprincipled ways. It is putting lives and
livelihoods at risk unnecessarily and it is wantonly endangering the integrity
of the United Kingdom.
At nine p.m. GMT tonight (five p.m. ET), MPs will vote on
whether or not Parliament can take back control of the Brexit process from the
government, thus blocking a no-deal Brexit on October 31st. If that happens,
Johnson has said that he will immediately push for a general election. His only
real option.
This is high risk, clearly. As for the “high reward” —
well, under the terms laid out in the Fixed Term Parliament’s Act, Johnson
requires two-thirds of MPs to agree to a general election. Of course
Parliamentarians, depending on which party they belong to and their particular
pro-Brexit or anti-Brexit strategy, are divided over this prospect. But let’s
assume they green light an election. What then? Would it be before or after the
Brexit date on October 31? Knowing his audience, Johnson has assured MPs that
it would be on October 14, the day of the Queen’s speech. But might this be an
elaborate ruse?
Moreover, what if Labour MPs then find a way to pass a
law blocking no-deal prior to the election? In such a scenario, Robert Peston,
the ITV news political editor, has explained:
Johnson would [then] have to cancel
the election – because if he were to lead his party into an immediate general
election with Brexit delayed, the Tories would probably be smashed to pieces by
the Brexit Party.
More and more, the situation resembles the story of the
Three Little Pigs.
Little pigs, little pigs, let no-deal Brexit in!
cry Johnson and co.
Not by the hairs on our chinny chin chins! replies
Parliament.
Well then, we’ll huff, and we’ll puff, and we’ll blow
this House in!
Who, then, shall stand in the winds that blow?
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