By Jonathan S. Tobin
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
After months of debate inside his administration,
President Trump has finally decided to further tighten sanctions on Iran. Iran
hawks have for months been urging the president to end the waivers that granted
eight nations to continue importing Iranian oil, the Islamist regime’s main
source of foreign cash. In doing so, Trump is taking a substantial risk. But it
is one worth taking.
The fallout from the move could lead to a substantial
hike in oil prices this summer. It could also greatly complicate relations with
China — Iran’s largest remaining customer for oil — just as the administration
nears the end of complicated trade negotiations with Beijing. And Iran has
threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and thereby shut down the shipping of
oil to the West from its enemies on the Arabian Peninsula, which could
potentially lead to the sort of war scenario that Trump most wants to avoid.
These are strong reasons for caution. Yet far from a
foolhardy gamble, Trump’s decision is the most sensible choice available to
him.
Why did Trump do it? He knows that the sanctions he
re-imposed after pulling out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action have had
a powerful impact on Iran. As the New
York Times recently reported, the sanctions, contrary to the predictions of
Trump’s critics, have had a devastating impact. Among those most feeling the
pinch from the austerity imposed by American restrictions on commerce with Iran
are the terrorist groups that it funds.
The sanctions, reports the Times, have created an economic crisis for Tehran, causing it to
cut down on the money it spends funding both terrorists and the barbarous Assad
regime it helped prop up via military intervention in the Syrian civil war.
Even Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah recently conceded that U.S. sanctions
have hurt the ability of his Iranian masters to fund his group’s misdeeds.
The Obama administration lifted sanctions and gave to
companies and countries thousands of waivers that permitted them to do business
with Iran, despite U.S. laws that forbade such conduct. The Trump
administration has tried both to shut down legal methods of commerce with the
ayatollah’s regime and to ferret out illegal scams. Last month, the Treasury
Department announced that it had disrupted a billion-dollar currency-trading
scheme that Tehran used to help fund the military adventures of the Iran
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
But so long as Iran was still able to count on China,
India, Japan, Turkey, Italy, Greece, South Korea, and Taiwan to buy its oil, it
could fund terror and work to achieve its goal of regional hegemony. Proceeds
from oil sales also allowed these brutal theocrats to keep the restive Iranian
people from threatening the regime.
With the Iranian economy tanking, this is the right moment
for the U.S. to tighten the noose around Tehran and send a signal to our
European allies, who, valuing their own financial interests more than the
collective security of the West, have continued to trade with Iran using
“special-purpose vehicles.” The administration’s goals — to force Iran to cease
its ballistic-missile tests, end its support for terrorism, roll back its
effort to create a land bridge to the Mediterranean, and renegotiate the
disastrous nuclear agreement that gave it a legal path to a bomb — remained out
of reach so long as the waivers stood.
Trump is particularly sensitive to rising gas prices and
has tweeted about the need for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf State allies to
increase oil production. This would help cushion the impact of ending Iran’s
exports. Luckily, these states regard restraining Iran as essential to their
own security.
As for China, there are reasons to cut off its financial
trickery, which allow it to evade American sanctions. Even if Trump makes
concessions to China in return for their cooperation on Iran, this will be a
decision worth making.
Iran’s talk about menacing the shipping traffic in the
Gulf is more worrisome. But this is far from the first time Tehran has made
such threats. And though the downsides of a confrontation should not be
underestimated, the Iranian regime has always been extremely cautious when it
comes to confronting a superior military power like the United States.
In any case, allowing Iran to engage in such commerce
only strengthens the regime. Obama enriched Iran by unfreezing assets and
ending sanctions. That put weapons and money in the hands of Hezbollah and the
IRGC. It also helped other terror groups such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad
and the Houthis in Yemen create more grave threats to regional security.
Obama’s media “echo chamber” was certain that a unilateral re-imposition of
sanctions wouldn’t accomplish anything.
Yet the first stage of re-imposed sanctions has begun to
work. If Trump is to finish the job, gas-price hikes, Chinese threats, and
Iran’s latest bluffs shouldn’t hold him back now that the ayatollahs’ backs are
really up against the wall.
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