By Rich Lowry
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
The collusion fantasy has officially given way to the
impeachment fantasy.
The passionate investment of the Left in the Mueller
investigation had much to do with shock and disbelief at Donald Trump’s victory
in 2016 and the hope of early deliverance — the special-counsel probe as
delectable revenge and deus ex machina.
The expectation that Robert Mueller would blow Trump out
of the White House with proof of collusion with Russia has, not surprisingly,
come up empty. No worries. If Volume I of the Mueller report, on Russia, didn’t
pan out, there’s always Volume II, on alleged obstruction.
When you are desperate to, in the memorable words of
Democratic freshman congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, “impeach the motherf—–,” any
rationale will do.
If House Democrats impeach Trump, though, they will be
sorely disappointed. They will wake up the day afterward and, after all the
drama and wall-to-wall coverage, he’ll still be president of the United States,
tweeting per usual.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has bizarrely become the
backstop of reason in Democratic politics, is reluctant to go down this path.
The question is whether she will get swamped by her base, just as the
Republican House leadership did in 1998.
Impeachment has a long history in Anglo America. The
British statesman Edmund Burke called it “the great guardian of the purity of
the Constitution,” and Cass Sunstein notes in his book on impeachment that the
U.S. Constitution probably wouldn’t have gotten ratified without a provision
for it.
Yet it is widely misunderstood. Pelosi said in 2017 that
the president can only be impeached for breaking the law, a claim that Trump
also tweeted on Monday. This may be an understanding convenient for both of
them, but it is incorrect.
“High crimes and misdemeanors” don’t have to be
technically legal in nature. Alexander Hamilton explained in Federalist 65 that
grounds for impeachment are “the abuse or violation of some public trust. They
are of a nature which may with peculiar propriety be denominated POLITICAL, as
they relate chiefly to injuries done immediately to the society itself.”
So it doesn’t matter that Mueller pulled up short of
accusing Trump of a crime. More notable is how Trump’s machinations came to
nothing.
He unsuccessfully tried to crimp an investigation that
found no underlying offense, while his White House officially cooperated with
the probe. We only know in such detail the episodes Mueller catalogs because
the White House coughed up so much material and so many witnesses, up to and
including the White House counsel.
What Trump is guilty of — shambolic, unfocused, and
ultimately ineffectual scheming — is closer to the term that the founders
considered for the impeachment clause, “maladministration,” before rejecting it
as too loose and vague.
Impeachment would be a symbolic mark against Trump, but
at what cost? Impeachment won’t magnify the president’s alleged offenses but
will make them smaller as the argument devolves into a microscopic examination
of his words and actions (and nonactions).
It would be the most forlorn impeachment ever. Andrew
Johnson came close to getting removed. Richard Nixon quit before he got
removed. Even with Bill Clinton, there was a moment when it seemed possible
some Senate Democrats might flip against him.
With Trump, there is no chance that he would be removed
by the Republican-held Senate, which would probably hold a perfunctory, minimal
trial, underlining the absurdity of the effort.
Trump’s approval ratings wouldn’t rocket skyward like
Bill Clinton’s. But Democrats would suffer the opportunity cost of distracting
attention from substantive issues people actually care about, and put their
relatively moderate members in an awkward spot.
Then there’s timing. We’re about 18 months before an
election where voters can pronounce on Trump’s presidency directly, without
assistance from House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler.
In the end, there’s only one way to take back what
Democrats believe was stolen from them in 2016. That’s to win the 2020
election, which will require some deftness, not perpetual grievance and enraged
wishfulness.
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