By Matthew Continetti
Saturday, April 20, 2019
Hollywood is filled with remakes and reboots. Washington
is about to get one of its own. The re-launched property: the 2016 campaign.
You know the plot. An outsider with grassroots support
leads a crusade against the party establishment and the legitimating
institutions that bestow credibility upon a candidate. He’s old, white, been
around for a while, says some things that are outside the mainstream, and has a
fickle relationship to his party. But he possesses a strange charisma,
dominates the conversation, and is willing to speak to audiences outside the
typical party coalition.
The novelty in this retelling of 2016: Our outsider is
fighting the Democratic Party, not the GOP. The original version starred Donald
Trump. The update features Bernie Sanders.
I still have the scars from Trump’s march through the
institutions of the right. One by one, he took on and defeated the power
brokers of the American conservative movement and Republican Party. He turned
his “pledge” to support the nominee into a political coup, the beginning of his
takeover of the Republican National Committee. He challenged the authority of
conservative media critical of him, including such important brands as Fox News
Channel and National Review. Burned
by the right’s foreign policy hands and economists, he got by with a ragtag
crew of wonks, intellectuals, and journalists. What money he raised came from
small-dollar contributions.
Trump shook the Republican Party to its foundations. He
forced it to recognize his power, drawn not from Beltway credentials but from
the Republican voter base. It was not that Trump remained unchanged. Beginning
in 2011, he adopted core Republican positions such as support for the right to
life, for the Second Amendment, for supply-side tax cuts, and for constitutionalist
judges on the bench. Once in power he listened and sometimes deferred to Paul
Ryan and Mitch McConnell. But the GOP changed more. It is no longer the party
it was before Donald Trump. Never will be.
It might now be the Democratic Party’s time in the
barrel. Among the Democrats who are declared presidential candidates, Sanders
is in the lead. And he’s not a Democrat. Sanders is second only to Biden, who
hasn’t announced his intentions. In one poll, Sanders is ahead of the former
vice president. He leads the money race. Like Trump, his support comes from
donations under $200. That’s not only a sign of appeal outside the major
cities. It means Sanders has room to grow because the overwhelming majority of
his donors have not given the maximum contribution.
Just as Trump did beginning in 2015, Sanders has
established the ground of intra-party debate. Trump turned the 2016 Republican
primary into a referendum on immigration, trade, and foreign policy. He came
out ahead. Sanders has defined the parameters of the 2020 Democratic primary
through his advocacy of Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and much higher
taxes on upper incomes. The antithesis of Trump’s nationalism is Sanders’s
socialism. And socialism is hot right now thanks to Millennials and to
Sanders’s Mini-Mes: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, and Rashida Tlaib.
The discourse surrounding Bernie Sanders’s campaign has a
familiar ring. “‘Stop Sanders’ Democrats Are Agonizing Over His Momentum,” read
a headline in The New York Times this
week. Where have I heard that before? “From canapĂ©-filled fund-raisers on the
coasts to the cloakrooms of Washington,” reports Jonathan Martin, “mainstream
Democrats are increasingly worried that their effort to defeat President Trump
in 2020 could be complicated by Mr. Sanders, in a political scenario all too
reminiscent of how Mr. Trump himself seized the Republican nomination in 2016.”
Actually, at the moment, Sanders is in a better position
than Trump was in July 2015. Sanders is viewed favorably by 74 percent of
Democrats, according to the Morning Consult poll. When he started his campaign,
Trump’s rating among Republicans was 57 percent. It rose to 66 percent by the
time he won the nomination. Sanders is more popular among Democrats at the
outset of his campaign than Trump was among Republicans at the end.
The revelation that he is now “a millionayah” seems to
have done Sanders little harm. He deflected accusations of hypocrisy at this
week’s Fox News town hall. His appearance on Fox was itself noteworthy. He
demonstrated a willingness to appear on platforms associated with the other
side of the political debate. Trump, you will remember, talked to everybody. It
was one way he displayed fearlessness and a capacity to lead.
As Democrats have become aware of Sanders’s viability,
they have reacted predictably. They have criticized his policies from the Times op-ed page and from New York
blogs. The verbal barrage doesn’t leave a mark. The activist arm of the Center
for American Progress (CAP), the most influential progressive think tank,
released a video highlighting the way Bernie’s description of wealth has
changed as he’s accumulated more of it. Bernie, like Trump, responded in full
force. CAP, funded by major corporations and foreign governments, and whose
former staff hold important positions within Sanders’s campaign, backed off.
Bernie won.
It gets worse for the Democratic establishment. The Times followed up the kerfuffle with a
profile of CAP’s leader, Hillary Clinton whisperer Neera Tanden, which might be
one of the most devastating hits I’ve read. And I know my hits. The piece opens
with an anecdote where Tanden admits to pushing Sanders’s campaign manager,
Faiz Shakir, when he worked for her. The copy is laced with quotations from
Tanden’s mother that reinforce the impression that CAP’s president will not
rest until Sanders is denied the Democratic nomination. “She says Sanders got a
pass,” Mama Tanden said, “but he’s not getting a pass this time.”
Perhaps not, but I’d rate the Democrats’ chances of
stopping Bernie higher if Tanden and her friends hadn’t responded to the Times piece by attacking it on Twitter
as gotcha journalism. How dare they interview the mother of a subject of a
profile piece! No one ever does—oh wait, that’s literally what every profile
writer does. And what is Tanden afraid of? Everything her mom said is accurate.
Her problem isn’t with the content of the quotes. It’s the fact that they were
made public.
The CAP-Tanden episode is trivial. It is also revealing.
Democratic elites are in the beginning stages of the same crisis that faced
their Republican counterparts four years ago. What do you do when the voters of
your party are set against you? How deep does influence really run?
The Democrats may have a way out. Recent polls suggesting
their party regulars are not socialist diehards has given them comfort. And
there is always identity politics. Sanders’s old-left message of economic
security for all is vulnerable to attack from identity groups demanding
recognition and entitlements for their particular constituencies. Coalition
management is a game Clinton played beautifully—she had policies for every part
of the Democratic rainbow. Bernie has big plans for all of us.
And it would be foolish to underestimate him. The last
seven days will be remembered as the week Washington D.C. realized Bernie might
win. And began to understand that we have no idea what to do about it.
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