National Review Online
Monday, January 23, 2017
As expected, one of the first actions of the Trump
administration has been to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific
Partnership, a proposed trade-liberalization pact among a dozen Pacific-facing
powers including the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and
Singapore — notably excluding China.
The retreat from TPP is regrettable inasmuch as the
accord had many excellent features, paramount among them putting the United
States and its humane democratic norms at the center of Pacific affairs rather
than ceding that place to Beijing. But large, multi-lateral trade pacts are out
of fashion just at the moment, not only with those who see global trade in
roughly the same terms as Donald Trump but also among those who see it in roughly
the same terms as Bernie Sanders — indeed, the two views are sometimes very
difficult to distinguish.
Part of the case against TPP was the secrecy in which it
was negotiated. Similar international accords have long been negotiated under
similar conditions of discretion, which is intended to facilitate a greater
degree of openness and cooperation among those engaged in the negotiations. But
national governments and international institutions ranging from the European
Union to the World Trade Organization are in bad odor at present, and trust in
them is very low. The rejection of TPP is only in part about the autarkic
fantasies of the world’s populists and nationalists; it is also an
understandable call for greater transparency in the development of global
economic arrangements. Future accords probably will have to be negotiated with
a much higher degree of openness to the general public or face similar
debilitating suspicion. That will mean, among other things, longer timelines
for the elected representatives and media of member states to review final
documents, and more openness on the part of national governments as to the
specific choices under consideration.
While multilateral trade deals are currently unpopular,
there is a bit of a vogue for bilateral trade pacts, which are seen as simpler
and more tractable. And, indeed, there is much to be said for them. But the
complexity of multilateral deals will be present in bilateral deals, too,
because trade is inherently complex. Consider a simple question: Does “free
trade” mean that governments are forbidden to discriminate against overseas
providers and contractors when it comes to military projects, or are they free
to privilege domestic firms out of national-security concerns? However one
answers that question, the answer is going to add a dozen pages or more to any
trade deal, bilateral or multilateral. Ten thousand other similar questions
will have similar effects, which is why trade deals end up looking like the Encyclopedia Britannica instead of the Declaration
of Independence. While it certainly would be desirable to deepen our bilateral
trade ties as the United Kingdom exits the European Union and to facilitate
freer trade between the United States and India, the instruments establishing
those more liberal relationships will be as complex as TPP if they are
effective, robust, and reasonably complete.
And while TPP or a similar accord would have represented
a significant elevation of the American role in Asian-Pacific affairs,
achieving similar results with piecemeal bilateral agreements will be much more
difficult, if it is possible at all.
We do not share the Trump administration’s reflexive
hostility toward international trade, because we do not share its belief that
Americans are necessarily being victimized by overseas producers and traders
who go to extraordinary lengths to bring the produce of human ingenuity and
effort to Americans’ doorsteps at reasonable prices — indeed, the opposite
is closer to the truth. But we do share the conviction that trade accords
should be entered into with open eyes and a firm grasp of the national
interest.
In Donald Trump’s view, TPP did not satisfy the criterion
of national interest. We will be interested in seeing what sort of instrument
does satisfy it. In trade as in peacekeeping, the absence of American
leadership leaves a vacuum that will not remain unfilled for very long.
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