National Review Online
Thursday, April 10, 2025
House Speaker Mike Johnson was forced to postpone a
scheduled Wednesday vote on a plan that will serve as a vehicle for legislation
to extend President Trump’s tax cuts before they expire at the end of the year.
Hours of arm-twisting could not convince a contingent of House Republicans,
concerned about mounting debt, to go along with a Senate-passed resolution with
a low floor for spending cuts. They are right to resist.
The federal debt held by the public is expected to reach
100 percent of the economy this year, the highest level since World War II, according to the
Congressional Budget Office, and it’s on track to surpass that all-time record
four years from now. Every year after that, it is projected to set a new
record, reaching 156 percent of gross domestic product within 30 years. Massive
and growing debt will stifle economic growth, trigger sustained inflation,
shift more government spending to paying interest and away from other
priorities, and make significantly higher taxes unavoidable.
By taking reforms to Social Security and Medicare off the
table, President Trump has made it highly unlikely that we will see any
significant deficit reduction in his administration, even taking into account
DOGE cuts. But the least Republicans can do is not make things worse.
Unfortunately, the Senate-passed budget resolution risks just that.
The current resolution being debated, which is now
expected to be voted on today, is really just the starting pistol for a tax
debate that is likely to take months. Trump has vowed to extend the tax cuts
from his first term as well as add additional provisions (including ending
taxation on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits). The tax changes are
expected to add trillions of dollars to deficits, the exact number depending on
the mix of policies agreed upon. For that reason, it’s crucial that any effort
to cut taxes is accompanied by significant offsetting spending cuts.
The House-passed outline called for at least $2 trillion
in deficit reduction to offset any other proposed tax cuts or spending
increases; in contrast, the Senate bill set a floor of a paltry $4 billion
(that’s billion with a “b”) in offsets. Under the Senate bill, deficits could
end up increasing by an incredible $6 trillion.
House Republican holdouts such as Representatives Chip
Roy of Texas and Eric Burlison are right to block a budget plan that does not
include any serious attempt to tackle spending.
Critics of the holdouts argue that the current vote isn’t
about the actual tax bill but merely about triggering the reconciliation
process that will allow Republicans to pass final legislation with a simple
majority. The Senate resolution doesn’t limit spending cuts to $4 billion, and
House members could still negotiate for significantly more in the actual bill
itself.
While that is technically true, the current fight is not
happening in a vacuum. For decades, fiscal conservatives have repeatedly had
the rug pulled out from under them when it comes to spending cuts. They are
promised that Republicans are going to get serious about spending the next
time, but told for now they just have to fall in line. The fact that this is
merely a budget outline is actually all the more reason to take a stand now.
Because if Senate Republicans aren’t willing to commit to deficit reduction in
a blueprint, we have trouble believing that they would be willing to make cuts
when they are for real.
If House Republicans go along to get along now, they will
face even more pressure to cave later this year, when they are dealing with the
real bill and Trump’s signature legislative accomplishment — and the taxes of
most Americans — will hang in the balance.
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