By Mark Leibovich
Thursday, April 10, 2025
President Donald Trump keeps getting asked about the
possibility of seeking a third term in 2028.
“Well, there are plans,” he recently told
NBC’s Kristen Welker, who became the latest interviewer to raise the topic.
She will almost certainly not be the last.
This appears to be by design—Trump’s design. His answers
always contain enough tantalizing ambiguity to keep people interested: What
plans exactly?
“There are—not plans,” Trump said to Welker, correcting
himself, if not clarifying anything. “There are methods.”
What methods?
This went on for a bit. It was not immediately clear how
serious Trump was, or whether he was just savoring the flattery of being asked
these questions again and again. After all, they allow him to note, correctly,
that a good portion of the Republican Party would love to see him run; they
also ensure that he will continue to be the central figure of the Republican
Party straight through the 2028 presidential primaries (assuming the GOP
bothers with that formality).
“I’m just telling you I have had more people say, ‘Please
run again,’” Trump reminded reporters aboard Air Force One a few hours after
the Welker interview aired. “We have a long way to go before we even think
about that,” he added.
In other words, it’s probably time to start thinking
about it.
Or, at the very least, to recognize that a familiar
pattern seems to be reasserting itself, one that can become quite messy. It
begins with Trump musing over some seemingly outlandish idea—say, his desire
for the United States to annex Greenland. At first, the prospect is treated as
an absurd amusement. Republicans on Capitol Hill are asked what they think.
They either laugh it off or avoid the question.
Soon enough, the prospect does not seem so ridiculous.
Donald Trump Jr., Vice President J. D. Vance, and Second Lady Usha Vance show
up in Greenland. Hyper-MAGA Representative Andy Ogles introduces the Make
Greenland Great Again Act in support of efforts to acquire the now-coveted land
mass. The Greenland gambit graduates to a legitimate intra-NATO disturbance—and
then no one is questioning whether Trump is serious.
This trajectory has become an utterly familiar dynamic of
the Trump-era GOP. Probably the most shameful example occurred when Trump
refused to concede the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden, then did
nothing as his supporters ransacked the U.S. Capitol. Many Republicans assumed
that he would eventually relent. “What is the downside for humoring him for
this little bit of time?” one senior GOP official told
The Washington Post that November, in what became one of the
most infamous and foreboding blind quotes ever rendered.
By now it should be clear to Republicans that, however
ridiculous—and funny—Trump can seem, he should always be taken seriously.
Especially when he says something explicitly, and when it involves a potential
violation of the Constitution.
“I’m not joking,” Trump told Welker. “I’m not joking.”
And yet.
“It kinda sounded like he was joking,” Republican Senator
John Cornyn of Texas told reporters about the third term that Trump expressly
had said he was not joking about.
“The president and I have talked about this,” Speaker of
the House Mike Johnson said, also in response to the Welker interview. “Joked
about it. He’s joked about it with me onstage before.”
Trump is “just having some fun with it,” Senate Majority
Leader John Thune said on the same subject.
When I asked a smattering of other elected Republicans
about this issue on Capitol Hill last week, they responded with various shrugs,
brush-offs, and other nonresponses.
Several Republicans have pointed out that the
Constitution doesn’t allow Trump to run for a third term. “No person shall be
elected to the office of the President more than twice,” the Twenty-Second
Amendment reads. Unless, of course, the Constitution is ignored, or changed.
Ogles, who has made a subspecialty of gratifying Trump
through boutique legislation tailored to his passion projects, has already
introduced a resolution that would amend the Constitution to allow a president
to run for a third term. This would seem to open the door to a dream showdown
pitting Trump against his twice-elected predecessor, Barack Obama. Except that
Ogles’s resolution conveniently excludes presidents who served their two terms
consecutively. So, sorry, Obama. Trump would be the only living president, or
ex-president, eligible to run again—other than, well, Biden, if he’s still
interested.
Ogles’s resolution appears unlikely to succeed. Amending
the Constitution requires the support of at least two-thirds of the House and
Senate, along with three-quarters of the individual states. But that’s not
stopping Trump loyalists from making clear that they consider this a noble and
achievable goal.
“I’m a firm believer that President Trump will run and
win again in 2028,” Steve Bannon, who served as Trump’s chief White House
strategist during his first term, said in an interview with
NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo last month. “We’re working on it. I think we’ll have a
couple of alternatives,” Bannon said.
One alternative involves Trump running as a
vice-presidential candidate on a 2028 ticket with Vance. Assuming they win,
Vance would step aside and Trump would retain his accustomed office, reaching
the age of 86 if he served a full term. (The Constitution says that you can’t
be elected more than twice to the presidency, Trump supporters like to
point out, not that you can’t serve more than twice—a potential loophole
that few constitutional scholars credit and that hasn’t been tested in the
courts.)
It’s easy to imagine that these Trump-perpetuation
efforts will become a pretext for pressure campaigns from the president’s
enforcers against elected Republicans. Even if they note that Trump is
constitutionally ineligible to run again, that would not stop anyone from
asking whether they support an amendment to change the Constitution. Soon,
Trump’s brazen position on third terms might become a litmus test for
Republicans who wish to stay viable in the party. The White House could make
clear that refusing to support Trump’s remaining in office will be considered
an act of disloyalty.
Again, the 2020 election offers a germane precedent.
Republicans who dared acknowledge Biden’s victory faced intense and sustained
ire from the White House. GOP lawmakers who voted to certify the election—once
a pro forma act of governance—were seen as traitorous by much of Trump world.
Saying that the 2020 election was “rigged” became almost a default position
inside the GOP.
One can envision that, for any Republican, supporting
Trump in 2028 will soon become a prerequisite for good standing. The idea might
seem dubious, for a lot of reasons. Such as the Constitution. But there are
methods.
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