By Michael Brendan Dougherty
Friday, December 02, 2022
After the shortest possible amount of time, and the
minimal amount of evidence, I’ve seen enough. I’m ready to bet the future of
the Republican Party on Ron DeSantis. Let’s just get on with Ron.
The case is simple. While Donald Trump’s 2016 candidacy
was remarkably efficient at attracting the precise number of voters it needed
in the precise states to narrowly win the Electoral College, the Republican
Party under Trump has repelled voters faster than it attracted them. It posted
losses among white women and white men that could not be offset by gains among
Hispanic voters. Ron DeSantis is the only figure in the Republican Party who
has substantially expanded the appeal of the GOP in this recent era.
Donald Trump has unique attributes as a candidate that
are useless to deny. He has star power. He is genuinely funny. And, most
hateful to admit, his moral deficiencies come with political advantages. His
shamelessness allows him to overpromise to every possible voting bloc. The
intensely polarized dynamic he can establish with his establishment antagonists
— Donald contra mundum — is intoxicating to Trump’s devoted
supporters.
Trump is also profoundly unpopular outside of the
Republican Party. He unites, outrages, and mobilizes the Democratic Party and
many independents against him, the same way that Hillary Clinton united the
Republican Party and many independents against her. And there are tremendous
downsides to a Trump sequel. The chaotic nature of his first administration is
likely to be exacerbated in a second. And he will not be eligible to run again
in 2028. He will be nearly as old as Joe Biden was when he was elected.
The case against having an overcrowded field of
underwhelming candidates for the Republican nomination is obvious. The effect
is to diminish everyone. And the result will be to advantage Donald Trump, who
starts with universal name recognition and all that star power.
Hundreds of thousands of people moved to Florida during Ron
DeSantis’s first term as governor. They did so because DeSantis made a
different choice on how to handle Covid-19, different from the establishment,
and even from Donald Trump. Not all of these people were Republicans when they
sought refuge in Florida, but the evidence on the voter-registration rolls
suggests that many have become Republicans in Florida. DeSantis’s strong
encouragement for schools to open benefited Florida students and won him fans
nationwide, particularly among suburban moms who hated school closures, masked
developmental therapies for their children, and the hasty imposition of
Covid-19 vaccine mandates.
DeSantis was the figure in this era who made the
Republican emphasis on removing the heavy hand of government appealing to
entirely new groups of voters. Anecdotally, I know many Hillary 2016 voters who
are all on board for DeSantis in 2024. Some were on the crunchier, skeptical
left. Others were in what you might call the Joe Rogan middle. Public-health
conformism and errors during the pandemic drove them to the political right.
Why? Because of figures such as DeSantis. The cultural fights he has picked on
education and gender ideology speak to their concerns. He is a conservative
statesman who understands that present emergencies should not impel us to
rashly alter ways of life that exist for a reason. That’s why he is already as
effective a fund-raiser in the party as Donald Trump is.
And then there is the most obvious reason to bet on
DeSantis. He can unite the Republican Party. The party may disagree deeply
about trade, the rate and type of immigration that is useful, and foreign
policy. But most Republicans seem to be able to agree on him.
He has a deep appeal to Trump voters who appreciate how
DeSantis has taken up Trump’s mantle against the media and even big “woke”
corporations. He appeals to anti-Trump voters, who see in him a bridge from the
party as Trump re-created it — and a future where they aren’t embarrassed to
pull the lever for Republicans. His political success compels Republicans to
trust his instincts. His competence reassures independents.
Do I need to see more of Trump? No. Nor Nikki Haley, Mike
Pence, or Mike Pompeo. I don’t want 18 months of drama. Just pencil in Ron and
move on.
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