By Helen Raleigh
Monday, November 02, 2020
Elections have consequences, both domestic and foreign.
There is a consensus among China observers that Beijing hopes for a Joe Biden
win this November, because the last time Biden was in charge, as vice president
of the United States, China completed its control of the South China Sea.
The South China Sea is one of the most important bodies
of water on the planet. Besides China, multiple nations including Vietnam,
Malaysia, and the Philippines have their own, sometimes overlapping, claims to
portions of the South China Sea. In addition to historic claims, according to
the United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a nation has
sovereignty over waters extending twelve nautical miles from its land and
exclusive control over economic activities 200 nautical miles out into the
ocean.
However, using its own map with a “nine-dash line,” China
claims that it has historic rights to about 90 percent of the South China Sea,
including those areas that run as far as 1,200 miles from mainland China and
which fall within 100 miles of the coasts of the Philippines, Malaysia, and
Vietnam. No other country in the world either recognizes the legitimacy of
China’s nine-dash–line map or its historic claim.
The disputes between China and its neighboring Asian
countries are not simply about who has the rightful claim historically but are
predominantly about economic rights. The South China Sea is rich with natural
resources such as oil and gas. It accounts for 10 percent of the world’s
fisheries and has provided food and a way of living for millions of people in
the region for centuries. The region is also one of the busiest trading routes,
with about one-third of global shipping and more than $3 trillion worth of
global trade passing through this area annually.
When Xi Jinping became Communist China’s supreme leader
in 2013, he regarded transforming China into a maritime power, including the
expansion in the South China Sea, as a key component to his great Chinese
rejuvenation. According to the Chinese Communist Party’s own publication,
“On the South China Sea issue, [Xi] personally made decisions on building
islands and consolidating the reefs, and setting up the city of Sansha. [These
decisions] fundamentally changed the strategic situation of the South China
Sea.”
China started land-reclamation efforts in the South China
Sea in 2013. Beijing initially proceeded slowly and cautiously while evaluating
the Obama-Biden administration’s reaction. It sent
a dredger to Johnson South Reef in the Spratly archipelago. The dredger was
so powerful that it was able to create eleven hectares of a new island in less
than four months with the protection of a Chinese warship.
When it became clear that the Obama-Biden administration
wouldn’t do anything serious to push back, China ramped up its island-building
activities. China insisted that its land-reclamation efforts were for peaceful
purposes, such as fishing and energy exploration. However, satellite images
show there are runways, ports, aircraft hangars, radar and sensor equipment,
and military buildings on these manmade islands.
Noticing the Obama-Biden administration’s unwillingness
to push back on China’s island-building activities, China’s smaller neighbors
decided to find other means of addressing the crisis at hand. In 2013, the
Philippines filed an arbitration case under the UNCLOS over China’s claims of
sovereignty over the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal.
In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague
rejected the majority of China’s claim of the South China Sea. It also ruled
that China’s island build-up was not only unlawful but also a blatant violation
of the Philippines’ economic rights and that it “had caused severe
environmental harm to reefs in the chain.” Beijing chose to ignore the ruling
and press ahead with more island construction and militarization.
Without U.S. intervention, small countries such as the
Philippines have little means to enforce the ruling and halt China’s maritime
expansion in the South China Sea. Former U.S. defense secretary Ash Carter
criticized the Obama-Biden administration for giving Beijing a rare strategic
opening for its island-building. As the Obama administration stood by, China
was able to reclaim an estimated 3,200 acres of land on seven features in the
South China Sea.
The Obama-Biden administration bore the prime
responsibility for not forcefully stopping China’s South China Sea expansion
early on. The administration’s soft approach and wishful thinking gave China a
four-year strategic window to turn the South China Sea into China’s backyard
pond and the most dangerous water on this planet, a reality the rest of the
world now has to live with.
It was reported that between 2010 and 2016, 32 out of the
45 major incidents reported in the South China Sea involved at least one
Chinese ship. Fishermen from the Philippines and Vietnam can’t even fish in
their own nations’ water safely without being
harassed by Chinese coastal guards and militarized Chinese fishing boats.
The Chinese Navy also has responded to the U.S. Navy’s “freedom of navigation”
operations in an increasingly defiant
and aggressive manner. Some national-security experts predict that the
first real Sino–U.S. war could be fought in the South China Sea.
The Trump administration ended China’s unchallenged
expansion in the South China Sea by announcing in July that the United States
supports the 2016 Hague ruling and opposes several of Beijing’s claims in the
South China Sea. In the same month, the
U.S. Navy also sent
two aircraft carriers to waters near the South China Sea when China held a
large military exercise. Following the U.S. lead, Philippine president Rodrigo
Duterte, who had appeased Beijing since he came to office in 2016, recently told
Beijing to follow international law, including The Hague ruling to resolve any
dispute in the South China Sea.
Biden might have adopted harsh rhetoric against China,
but his past actions — and inactions — speak louder than his words. The last
time when Biden was in charge, China completed its expansion in the South China
Sea. Should Biden get elected this November, Beijing believes that Biden is
someone it could do business with and expects him to revise the Trump
administration’s hard line policies toward China. The recent revelation of
Hunter Biden’s questionable
dealings in China shows that Beijing has invested heavily to cultivate a
good relationship with the Biden family for decades. A four-year Biden
presidency will likely give China’s Xi ample time to fulfill his ambition:
putting the final building blocks of a Sino-centric world order, turning China
into a technology powerhouse through the completion of the “Made
in China 2025” initiative, and possibly taking Taiwan by force.
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