By David Harsanyi
Friday, November 06, 2020
Let’s just say this wasn’t the repudiation the Left was looking for. If Joe Biden wins the presidency, he will have beaten one of the most eccentric and flawed candidates in American history, and then only during a once-in-a-century pandemic and a massive economic contraction. It’s unlikely Donald Trump loses this election without coronavirus. I’m not sure he loses this election if he had a good first debate.
Trump, who brought much opprobrium on himself, faces the prospect of losing after enduring four years of mind-numbing hysteria over a slew of imaginary existential threats to American democracy and a concocted scandal about imaginary Russian spy rings. And then, barely. Not only did the political media feed the frenzy (though many Americans are likely inured to it), but also by the end many were openly campaigning for his opponent. They even went so far as to bury inconvenient stories for their favored candidate. The media’s credibility is shot. No one deserved Donald Trump more.
Trump was likely sunk by white suburbanites who grew tired of his schtick during the pandemic. On the other hand, it’s likely that Trump captured a bigger percentage of the non-white vote this year than any Republican candidate since Richard Nixon in 1960. That ubiquitous “racist!” smear has finally been so overdone that it’s become politically irrelevant — or maybe even backfiring.
Trump antagonists were contemplating a filibuster-proof Senate and enduring Democratic Party majorities as recently as last week. Yet it was Democrats who lost ground in numerous important ways. We were subject to a political environment obsessed with race and identity politics, and Republicans still made inroads with Latino and black voters in states such as Texas, Florida, and elsewhere. The most dramatic example can be found in Zapata County, the second-most-populous Hispanic county by percentage in the United States. Obama won it by 43 points in 2012. Hillary won it by 33 points in 2016. Biden lost by 5 points.
And now, Democrats might not have Trump to kick around, but they could have ownership of a vision-less, gaffe-generating president whose best political attribute was not being the Trotskyite in the Democratic Party primaries. To find less enthusiasm for a presidential candidate, you’d probably have to go back to Bob Dole. This, even though Biden was largely sequestered from the public. The media will continue to coddle him, but there would still be a bunch of outrageous promises for him to keep — such as his pledge to stop COVID while keeping the economy growing at the same time.
Joe’s luck has turned. Trump, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton all came into office with majorities in both the Senate and House, as well as a honeymoon. All of them — yes, even Trump — were far more talented and charismatic than Biden. In those days, moderates still roamed the halls of Congress. Even George W. Bush was able to pass a big education bill (unfortunately). Right now, the prospects of Republicans holding the Senate are high. Even if the GOP loses run-offs in Georgia, a thin majority makes any big reform improbable. One now wonders if such reforms would even get out of the House, where Democrats now have one of the slimmest majorities of any party in decades. And what will the House look like in the future? Most pollsters were predicting a Blue Wave would give Democrats control of a number of Republican statehouses and thus redistricting. As of this writing, Democrats have flipped none.
After a possible COVID-relief and, maybe, an infrastructure bill, Biden would face the prospect of gridlock. There will be no Green New Deal hiking energy prices and destroying personal freedom. There will be no Court-packing. No state programs funding late-term abortions. There will be no single-payer socialized medicine. No gun bans. No big tax hikes. There will be no big progressive reforms. It’s also difficult to see Biden replacing a “conservative” Supreme Court justice. Not in the foreseeable future.
And any attempt on Biden’s part to engage in bipartisan negotiations with Republicans to boost his fortunes would almost certainly be met by immediate condemnation from the growing socialist faction that Democrats embraced during the Resistance years. The socialists won’t go away. And middle-class Latinos in Florida and Texas will keep hearing from them.
Biden would likely be compelled to govern through Obama-style executive orders and administrative-state access. This is a destructive and unpopular way to conduct business. It is, thankfully, also fleeting. One of Trump’s greatest accomplishments will have been crushing the Obama executive legacy into dust. This time around, there may also be a Supreme Court curb of the abuses that emanate from the White House.
In the case of a Biden presidency, of course, Democrats will immediately accuse Republicans of obstructionism. This rhetoric has a limited appeal. As always, the media will juxtapose low congressional-approval numbers against the president’s. And again, they will fail to understand that anger at Congress means anger at someone else’s congressman.
This tactic didn’t even work for Obama, who was far more adept at messaging than Biden. And if history is any gauge, the GOP will have a shot at taking back the House in the first midterm, which would make things even more difficult for Biden and the Left.
Or not. The GOP could easily blow it. They do that. As Democrats keep learning, America is a divided nation, fickle and easily distracted. A strong personality or a big event can change our political trajectory. That’s a fine thing. No party should be lording over the decisions of citizens from Washington. And no one party should feel comfortable.
That’s certainly one of the lessons of the Trump years.
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