By David French
Friday, June 28, 2019
After two debates and countless promises of sweeping
political reform, the most important question of either night was asked to the
leading Democratic contender, who claims to have the most comprehensive and
realistic political plans of all the candidates. Moderator Chuck Todd asked
Senator Elizabeth Warren, “Do you have a plan to deal with Mitch McConnell?”
Her response was immediate and confident. “I do,” she
said. The crowd cheered. And what was that plan? After some generalized
filibustering, she laid it out: “We have to push from the outside, have
leadership from the inside and make this Congress reflect the will of the
people.” No, really, that was her plan. You can watch the exchange here
— oddly celebrated by the “Team Warren” Twitter account.
The very next day, as if the debate had been engineered
to show his strength, McConnell was instrumental in strong-arming the House
Democrats into passing the Senate’s version of a bill designed to ease the
crisis on the border. The New York Times headline said it all: “House
Passes Senate Border Bill in Striking Defeat for Pelosi.”
Oddly, some held him responsible for failing to repeal
Obamacare while Obama was president. If D.C. was the swamp, then — in
the memorable words of insurgent West Virginia Senate candidate Don Blankenship
— McConnell was the “swamp captain.”
He received no credit for maintaining enough Republican
Senate discipline to block virtually every significant Obama legislative
initiative after the Democrats lost their filibuster-proof majority. He
received virtually no credit for getting the Obama administration to agree to
make the majority of the Bush tax cuts permanent. He received only grudging
credit for blocking Merrick Garland’s nomination to the Supreme Court and
preserving a chance for a conservative Supreme Court majority.
But now? I’d like to hear anyone make the argument that
McConnell isn’t one of the most effective legislative leaders in modern
American history. Republicans know it, Democrats know it, and this brings us to
a challenge so profound that it lends an air of unreality to the entire
Democratic presidential primary.
It’s certainly possible for a Democratic candidate to
beat Donald Trump. In spite of the strength of the economy, his polling numbers
are in dangerous territory for an incumbent. But unless the Democrats can beat
Trump and unseat Mitch McConnell as Senate majority leader and
persuade a majority of the Senate to ditch the legislative filibuster, none of
their sweeping plans will become law.
That means no Medicare for All, no free college, no
decriminalization of border crossings, no sweeping loan forgiveness. The
Democratic stampede to the left doesn’t just enhance Trump’s reelection odds,
it preserves McConnell’s power. There will be Americans who will choose to vote
against Trump and against Medicare for All. They’ll disapprove of Trump
but also want to block open borders. Those voters will vote to retain a
Republican Senate.
And make no mistake, even though more Republican Senate
incumbents are up for election than Democratic incumbents, the map still isn’t
that favorable for the Left. Unless Alabama primary voters lose their minds
(again), Doug Jones won’t face Roy Moore in November. Alabama will vote red
again, and that means Democrats would have to pick up four seats to create a
Senate tie and take control if the Democrats win the White House.
It won’t be easy. Don’t just take it from me. Take it
from Vox:
The road to a Democratic majority in the Senate, even a
bare one, won’t be easy.
“What makes this map very deceiving
was in 2018, Democrats had to defend five seats in states Trump won by 19
points or more,” said Jennifer Duffy, a Senate expert at the nonpartisan Cook
Political Report. “In this case, there’s no Republican sitting in a state that
Clinton won by more than 5.”
Every single presidential election we hear the same
thing: “This is the most important election of our lifetimes.” In the age of
negative polarization, we’ve added an ominous “and” — “and if we lose, America
will be over.”
But for 2020, this argument is fundamentally wrong.
Unless a wave builds to such intensity that it topples the president, the
Senate, and the filibuster, the Democratic candidates aren’t running to create
Democratic socialism, they’re running for small-ball legislative compromises,
regulations, and executive orders that would face immediate court challenges
(and be immediately repealed by the next Republican president), and to appoint
the few judges who could make it through Mitch’s gauntlet.
That’s what gridlock looks like in a nearly evenly
divided United States, and if that gridlock can force the real work of
governance back to state and local governments, then gridlock can be healthy.
It’s time for Republicans of every faction to acknowledge the truth — in the
face of an uncertain presidential election, the GOP needs Mitch McConnell on
that wall. So long as he retains his majority, the Democrats have no plan for
“Cocaine Mitch,” and that is a good thing indeed.
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