Brexit Delays

By Michael Brendan Dougherty

Monday, December 10, 2018

Well, Theresa May has called off the vote on her Brexit deal —  most likely, she figured out that the result of the vote would be so humiliating it could end her premiership or possibly bring down the government.

It is exactly the precariousness of the government’s situation that made me think that the Parliament should approve of Theresa May’s Brexit deal, while getting whatever legal clarifications on the “backstop” that Brussels may be willing to offer in the meantime.

I still think the Parliament should approve of the deal. And I keep finding reasons to respect the Prime Minister, even as her colleagues (and mine) denounce her.

Her deal achieves two of the main objectives of the Leavers: restoring control of Britain’s borders to the British government and clawing back the money that the U.K. sends to Brussels. It does so while assuaging the main fear of the Remainers, the fear that the U.K. would crash out and experience a sharp period of economic turmoil.  At the end of the transition period, the U.K. will be able to make a long-term trading relationship with the EU and others with the U.S. and other growing markets.

The deal achieves this at a real cost. But, if you believe as I do, that the U.K. and the EU are capable of reaching a free-trade agreement in a longer transition period, those costs are relatively minimal.

I see no evidence that there is a Parliamentary majority for “no deal,” or a “negotiated no deal.” The “Norway option” involved fewer complications but achieves fewer of the objectives of the Brexiteers.

On the other side are those who think the current Parliamentary chaos is evidence against Brexit, and for reversing course and withdrawing Article 50 for staying in the EU.  I have two questions for them; 1) If Prime Minister Cameron could not get concessions from Merkel, why would another Prime Minister get any?  2) Has the E.U. made the political situation more stable for France, Italy, and Germany over the last two years?

There are many reasons to criticize Theresa May’s political acumen, but she is almost certainly right on one thing: British people want the government to get on with it.