By Michael Brendan Dougherty
Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Angela Merkel really is the most consequential politician
of modern Europe, but lately not in the way she hopes. Her 2015 decision to
welcome over 1 million migrants into her country, and then her attempts to
impose refugee quotas across the European Union, have altered the politics of
Europe for a generation.
The latest of the run on-effects of this decision is now
in Austria. The 31-year-old leader of the People’s Party, Sebastian Kurz, will
soon be chancellor of Austria, after the smashing success of his insurgent
campaign, which renovated the party. Kurz won by promising “something new” in
politics. That something new includes a position on immigration that is
arguably harder than the one offered by the far-right Freedom Party, a group
with some roots in fascist politics and the likely coalition partner of Kurz’s
party. Kurz talks openly of working with or joining the Visgrád Group, the four
countries of central Europe that have rejected Merkel’s migration quotas.
The migration flow created after the 2015 “welcome” were
used by terrorists involved in the Bataclan massacre in Paris and in the
Brussels airport bombing. The sudden security problem overwhelmed and
essentially ended the Schengen arrangements that allowed free travel between
many European countries. Thus began a race of border reinforcements. In mid
2015, Hungary closed its border to Serbia. The weeks afterward saw Bulgaria
build a fence along its border with Turkey. Then Austria closed its border to
Hungary, and Hungary closed its border to Austria. Germany temporarily closed
to Austria. Weeks later, Slovenia began building a wall on its Croatian border.
These are Merkel’s walls.
There has been a serious price at home. Merkel’s entire
political calculus had always
assumed that Germany’s ugly 20th-century history meant that there never
could be a serious right-wing challenge to the center-right Christian
Democratic parties. That turned out to be wrong. The right-populist Alternative
for Germany helped bring Merkel’s CDU to its worst electoral performance in
seven decades. Merkel’s constant attempts at triangulating to her left have
also severely weakened the morale and performance of the Christian Social
Union, the Bavarian sister party to the CDU. To her credit, she has recognized
the potential for disaster. And she quickly negotiated an ugly deal with Turkey
to close the refugee flow coming over land from the Middle East.
Leif-Erik Holm, one of the more moderate voices in
Alternative for Germany, also placed the blame for Brexit on her doorstep.
“Angela Merkel opened the borders and the British realized in that moment that
‘hang on, we are not in control of our country’ and decided for Brexit because
of this,” he said in an interview earlier this year.
In fact, Holm is understating Merkel’s role. Because it
was Merkel who played the hardliner with U.K. prime minister David Cameron
ahead of Brexit. He went to Brussels to get some compromise deal on “freedom of
movement” ahead of the talks, trying to assuage the No. 1 concern of the
British public. Merkel gave him no concessions at all, just months after she
had initiated this wave of migration not only from Syria but from Eritrea and
sub-Saharan Africa.
And all of this leaves out the way Merkel’s invitation
became a boon for human smuggling operations in Niger and Libya. Her great
humanitarian gesture had the nasty underside that we see in the horrific
details from migrant camps in North Africa.
Merkel has practiced what Business Insider’s Josh Barro calls “no-choice politics.” During
the euro crisis, she relied on there being no choice to exit the currency
union. During the run-up to Brexit, she relied on the fact that Cameron had no
choice but to argue for Remain, no matter how little she offered. She relied on
there being no choice to her right in Germany. It hasn’t worked.
Merkel took responsibility for Europe over the last
decade. And Brexit, her party’s diminished majority, the border walls rising,
and the advent of populist alternatives are her legacy.
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