By James Pethokoukis
Monday, February 11, 2013
In President Barack Obama’s Election Night and inaugural
speeches, he made it clear there would be no centrist pivot in his second term.
Forward, 51 percent of my fellow Americans, to a more egalitarian, tolerant,
and communal future!
The president’s State of the Union speech on Tuesday will
likely flesh out that vision as it applies to the federal budget, income
inequality, and the environment. The era of Big and Getting Bigger Government
is here to stay, he’ll surely admit. Higher taxes on the rich and business will
be presented as a small price to pay for an expanded safety net and greater
economic security. Don’t worry, middle-class Americans, the “dad of the
country” — to use comedian Chris Rock’s recent description — will make it all
better.
Given all that, it seems like good news that The
Economist has just published a paean to Nordic-style, cozy capitalism, calling
the Viking on its February 2 cover “The Next Supermodel.” After all, isn’t that
what Father Obama is hell bent on accomplishing, the Swedenization of America
with a supersized welfare state, confiscatory taxes, and greater income
equality? The next thing you know, Michelle will be hiring Ikea to remodel the
Oval Office. Out with the stuffy Resolute desk, in with the clean, modern lines
of the Vika Gruvan model.
We should be so lucky. While America is moving left,
Scandinavia is moving right. As The Economist points out, Scandinavia’s
socialist image is badly out of date. Sweden is the largest of the Nordics and
perhaps the best example of their embrace of market capitalism. Over the past
20 years, Sweden’s public spending has declined from three-quarters of GDP to
just over half. Its corporate tax rate is half of America’s, its annual deficit
a rounding error of just 0.3 percent of GDP.
Late last year, the pro-free-enterprise Legatum Institute
published its annual Prosperity Index, ranking major national economies on
eight “foundations” of success, including economic fundamentals,
entrepreneurship and opportunity, and governance. The top three finishers were
Norway, Denmark, and Sweden, with Finland in seventh. And the U.S.? It finished
twelfth, outside of the top ten for the first time. Legatum’s damning
assessment: “[America’s] biggest fall is in entrepreneurship and opportunity,
which has declined eight places in the last four years. Businesses’ start-up
costs are rising in the land of pioneers and patents. Fewer Americans believe
that working hard will get them ahead.”
Scandinavia still taxes and spends too much. But it is
able to offset those disadvantages partially with efficient, honest, and
transparent government. Both cultural homogeneity and history have created a
high level of social trust, The Economist explains, which means “high-quality
people join the civil service. Citizens pay their taxes and play by the rules.
Government decisions are widely accepted.” In its economic-freedom index, the
Heritage Foundation praises the Swedish economy for its “regulatory efficiency
[and] open-market policies that sustain flexibility, competitiveness, and large
flows of trade and investment.” Of Denmark, Heritage says, “The overall
regulatory environment, transparent and efficient, encourages entrepreneurial
activity.”
The Nordics have had one other big advantage, at least up
until now: an America that innovates for the world’s benefit. It doesn’t matter
so much whether your own country is innovative, so long as it is open to
importing and adopting new ideas, inventions, and processes created elsewhere
(as well as the “creative destruction” such innovation brings), which the
Nordics are. But someone somewhere needs to push the technological frontier.
Economists Daron Acemoğlu, James Robinson, and Thierry Verdier suggest
countries “may want to be like the Nordics with a more extensive safety net and
a more egalitarian structure . . . [but] it may be precisely the more
cut-throat American society, with its extant inequalities, that makes possible
the existence of more cuddly Nordic societies.” If America were “to switch to
such cuddly capitalism, this would reduce the growth rate of the entire world
economy.”
This possibility has probably never entered the
president’s mind. If it had, he might have, say, not raised investment-tax
rates by 60 percent as he did from 2012 to 2013. The worst-case outcome is an
America that gets a more Nordic-sized welfare state and tax burden, keeps its
current inefficient, dysfunctional government, and loses its innovative edge.
That is a recipe for, in turn, stagnation, crisis, and decline. Under
Obamanomics, America is more likely on path toward Italy or Greece than Sweden
or Denmark.
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