By Michael Novak
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Many friends are telling me that most of the European
media are expecting President Obama to be reelected. If so, they are likely to
be shocked on election day. In the U.S., there are 26 national polling firms.
The one I count most trustworthy is Rasmussen (which came closest to hitting
the exact result for 2008), and the oldest and best known is Gallup. As of
October 23 (just after the third and final debate), both showed Governor Romney
beating the president with over 51 percent, and by between four and six points.
Even the poll of all the polls (reported daily at
RealClearPolitics.com) shows Romney climbing everywhere and day by day pulling
ahead in state after state.
For myself, I expect Romney to win by just over 52 to 46
percent, with two minor candidates gathering about 2 percent between them.
The United States has never before had to make a choice
like this — between two different ways of life. This is a choice about whether
we want the United States to become more like the European welfare states. Or,
rather, to stick to our own traditional ways: risk, creativity, growth, and
opportunity. Obama acts consistently to make the United States like Europe. No
wonder many Europeans cheer him on.
Of course, Obama could yet win. The week remaining before
the November 6 election might still hold many surprises. The Democratic party
is famous, when it is losing, for launching October Surprises — dramatic
actions, or sudden damaging revelations about the opposing candidate. Besides,
our media (except for Fox News) have become extremist in their support for
Obama.
Yet this lack of balance is not necessarily a
disadvantage for Governor Romney. The press is misleading the public (and
itself) about what is really happening on the ground, among ordinary people.
To keep one’s feet on the ground in the United States,
one must watch which candidate working males — steelworkers, miners,
gas-station attendants, truck drivers, and so on — are favoring. And which way
married women are trending. Ever since Reagan, most working males and married
women trend markedly Republican. They are especially strong for Romney.
By contrast, the Democrats, the Party of Government,
strongly attract single women, both unmarried and widows. President Obama also
appeals to the new “counterculture” that celebrates abortion, gay marriage, and
a morally relaxed culture. They are locked in a “culture war” against
traditional American virtues ( biblical, Jewish and Christian). In Europe, many
refer to these as “puritan” values.
But, then, the narrow, strict “puritan” culture of
Massachusetts and Rhode Island did not extend its sway to the South and the
West.
“Out there,” Christianity was barely present in the
“churchy” forms familiar to Europeans. The South and the West favored the
relaxed style of the “free churches” — more informal, associational, open and
friendly, “Spirit-moved,” even a bit enthusiastic.
Persons formed in this environment are less inclined to
accept statism and its bureaucracies, and labor unions and their enforced
electoral solidarity. They take pride in self-reliance, self-government, and
personal self-control. Their type of living requires certain solid habits in
people, not the “loose” ways of urban secularism.
Look again at the Statue of Liberty in New York Harbor,
designed by the French to capture the American character. Lady Liberty is a
very serious, sober woman — a second-grade teacher. In one hand she holds aloft
the torch of reason and light against ignorance and impulse, and in her other
hand she carries the Book of the Law. The American hymnodist captures this note
perfectly: “Confirm thy soul in self-control, thy liberty in law.” An inner
law.
To be sure, urban secularism via television, the movies,
and the popular-music industry has spread its magnetic allure all through the
countryside by now. But the older ways still matter to churchgoers and married
couples. Thus, “the culture war.”
More important just now is the havoc wrought on the American
economy by President Obama’s statist actions. Middle-class families during the
last four years have lost scores of thousands of dollars in the net worth of
their homes (their largest investment by far). They have lost over $4,300 per
family in real income. Prices of common, humble goods — coal, gas, electricity,
food — have risen steadily. In daily life, everything costs more, from food for
one’s family to fuel for one’s automobile. The pain is felt many times a day.
And still there is the huge weight of public debt —
climbing every second of every day, and heading for an additional $5 trillion
just in the last four years. This debt is an enormous tax laid on our children
and grandchildren. Many count this as cross-generational theft, an immorality of
the first order.
And opportunity! Opportunity is to Americans what
security is to Europeans. Millions wonder, “Where has opportunity gone?” Few
new jobs; 21 million people without jobs, including those millions who after
four years have given up searching. Almost half of all university graduates
last year could not find jobs, and have returned to live with their parents.
It would take us too far afield here to explain how
President Obama’s abuse of religious liberty — especially but not only of the Catholic
Church — has driven away many who voted for him in 2008. For instance, in 2008
a slim majority of churchgoing Catholics voted for Obama. This time, most of
those Catholics who go to church “seldom or never” prefer Obama. But those who
go to church “weekly or almost weekly” tell pollsters, by a margin of 59
percent to 34 percent, that they will vote for Romney this time.
Voters who swing from one party to another between
elections count twice. They take one vote from Obama, say, and give that vote
to Romney. At present, at least 1.5 million churchgoing Catholics say they will
switch from Obama to Romney. That counts as a swing of 3 million votes.
Under Obama the poor have suffered more than anyone else.
Millions have fallen into poverty — back to levels not seen since the late
1960s. The official poverty line is roughly $24,000 annually for a family of
four.
It is always wise to think that your own side is behind,
the other ahead. That way, your whole team works harder. By all accounts, this
year the Republicans have more enthusiasm and eagerness. The Democrats seem
less spirited. Recently every day shows more strength for Romney, especially in
the most hotly contested states. But that, of course, can change. In an
election campaign, a week can seem an eternity.
There is much nail-biting in the United States these
days.
No comments:
Post a Comment