National Review Online
Thursday, November 09, 2023
Republicans fell short on Tuesday night, but
it wasn’t a debacle, either. The results were well within the margin of
what you’d expect.
In Virginia, Governor Glenn Youngkin made a crusade
of taking unified control of the state legislature and instead lost both
chambers. Republicans picked up one senate seat, falling just short of control,
and lost three house seats, just giving up control. This is disappointing, but
not shocking given Virginia’s blue coloration. If the outcome is a blow to
Youngkin, there is no doubt that the GOP is immensely better off than it was
prior to his arrival in 2021.
Andy Beshear, the popular Democratic governor of
Kentucky, turned back a challenge from Attorney General Daniel Cameron.
Kentucky is a heavily Republican state, although one with a habit of electing
Democratic governors, especially ones named Beshear. The current Governor
Beshear is the son of a prior Governor Beshear. Cameron, an African-American,
is widely thought be a rising a star, but probably tried too hard to
nationalize the race, while Beshear kept it relentlessly focused on the state.
In Mississippi, a state not in the habit of electing
Democratic governors lately, Republican Governor Tate Reeves won reelection.
Finally, a pro-abortion measure swept to victory in Ohio.
Two main culprits are being cited for the lackluster GOP
night. One, as we’ve already addressed here, is the issue of abortion.
Democratic legislative candidates in Virginia leaned heavily on it, as did
Beshear, and Ohio was the latest in an unrelieved series of ballot-measure
defeats for pro-lifers. In response, some on the right are telling pro-lifers
to go away and let Republicans focus on more popular causes. This, of course,
would be a moral abdication, and a political overreaction, since many Republicans
who have championed pro-life laws are thriving in the post-Dobbs environment.
The other is Donald Trump. He, of course, wasn’t on the
ballot, but the charge of “MAGA extremist” played a prominent role in
Democratic attacks in Virginia. Republicans are always going to be accused of
being “extremists” of some variety or other. It matters, though, that they
really are associated with Trump, who remains the de facto leader of the party
and is the presumptive 2024 nominee despite conduct that would be disqualifying
for anyone else. The merits aside, there is no electoral upside to this for
Republicans — a Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis would presumably run stronger
against Biden, without blighting the GOP brand.
A lackluster night is survivable, especially in an
off-year election, but the stakes are about to get much higher.
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