A Boomlet Can Be Fatal

By Michael Brendan Dougherty

Friday, November 03, 2023

 

Nikki Haley is finally rising in the Republican polls. One Des Moines Register poll had her pulling even with perpetually second-place Ron DeSantis. With DeSantis either falling or staying even, and Haley showing the only signs of life, there have been a few voices urging that everyone should drop out but Nikki Haley.

 

The Haley-now commentators really want to beat Trump, but this plan would immediately prove fatal to their hopes and could even strengthen Trump in the general election. Haley’s rise is a function of the narrowness of her appeal, not because of the genius of her campaign. She is appealing intensely to what has become a minority faction of the GOP. A New York Times/Siena poll this summer found the party divided into a “MAGA base” of about 37 percent, a group of “persuadable voters” of about 37 percent, and another 25 percent who are “not open to Trump.” Three of the most fascinating policy differences that marked out the “not open to Trump” group were their enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine, their support of immigration reform, and their opposition to “punishing” woke businesses.

 

By campaigning the way she has, Haley is appealing strongly to the roughly 25 percent of Republican voters for whom opposing Donald Trump and supporting Ukraine are primary issues of political identity. Haley’s all-out, give-them-enough-to-win position on Ukraine is not only becoming toxic among Republicans generally, but also among independents, who increasingly see the United States as doing too much to help Ukraine.

 

This is why when you look deeper into the polls, you see that Haley’s supporters tend to choose any non-Trump candidate as their second choice, whereas DeSantis seems to be a candidate collecting supporters among all three kinds of Republicans: the MAGA base, the persuadables, and the anti-Trump. His candidacy is faltering at this point because he is not the passionate choice of one defined faction; instead, he has broad appeal. Nearly 41 percent of his voters would take Trump as their second choice.

 

Which points to the other problem for Haley. The moment that DeSantis drops out, a huge slice of his support — perhaps up to half, will transfer directly to Trump, raising him above 50 percent in the early states and making his candidacy all but invincible.

 

Right now a three-person race of Haley, DeSantis, and Trump looks to be a replay of 2016, with Haley in the role of John Kasich, appealing to the center and left of the party. DeSantis would be in the role of Ted Cruz, as the Iowa-first candidacy shepherded by Cruz-veteran consultant Jeff Roe. And then Mr. MAGA himself, Donald Trump, appealing to not just his base, but beyond it.

 

There is also a potential in this race for the “not open to Trump” Republicans to get maximal egg on their face in the end. DeSantis has been the candidate fielding the most attacks from Trump, whether they are contradictory attacks on his record during the pandemic or silly nonsense about his footwear. DeSantis is the one firing back, saying that Donald Trump has lost a step, that he’s not campaigning as the Donald Trump of 2016, that he’s lost touch with the issues.

 

This dynamic has not only freed Haley from the mudslinging, but it’s also freed her to campaign in a way that preserves her chance to be Trump’s vice president. There is much talk in Trump world about how he needs a female on the ticket in order to strengthen his chances in the general. Haley polls well among suburban women, Trump’s weakest demographic. For Haley, the veep possibility has great upside. It guarantees her a spot to run in 2028 and potentially puts her one Coke-and-McDonald’s-addicted septuagenarian’s heartbeat away from the presidency.

 

Right now, if you really want to beat Trump, you have to go with the guy who has broadest appeal across the party, the one non-Trump who is likeliest to gain more support than Trump does as other candidates exit the race. Right now that’s Ron DeSantis.