By Noah Rothman
Monday, November 29, 2021
If you didn’t spend the Thanksgiving holiday weekend
glued to the news, you might be confused as to the origins of a global panic
over a new COVID variant that spread rapidly even for this highly transmissible
disease. That confusion is probably deepened because the panic is already
subsiding as those less inclined to mass hysteria join the conversation.
Late Thursday evening, what was still only known as the
B.1.1.529 variant became the subject of a dire all-points bulletin via the World
Health Organization. The mutation, first detected in South Africa, has the
potential to spread more quickly and could evade the protections provided by
both natural and vaccine-provided antibodies, the group warned. With that, the
world descended into a state of paralytic alarm.
Global markets collapsed. U.S. stock indexes suffered their biggest one-day percentage decline since February. The United
States raced to impose a travel ban on a handful of African nations believed to
have incubated this “variant of concern” effective Monday, though cases were
soon detected in Western Europe and Canada. America joined 44 countries
restricting travel from Sub-Saharan Africa, while nations such as Japan,
Morocco, and Israel blocked foreign nationals from entering their borders
altogether. New York’s Gov. Kathy Hochul preemptively suspended elective surgeries for the first time since
2020 in anticipation of a “spike” of new hospitalizations.
By Sunday, this new COVID anomaly had a name, “Omicron,”
and U.S. officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci were warning that a new round of
lockdowns could be necessary to prevent its spread. It “may not actually be a
big deal,” he said, “but we want to make sure that we’re prepared for
the worst.”
If all you had heard about this new iteration of COVID
was the apoplectic tone of the coverage around it, Fauci’s words sound prudent
enough. By Sunday, however, hints of skepticism began to creep into the
coverage of the variant. After all, what we don’t know about it is as much
cause for concern as it is for cautious optimism.
The chair of South Africa’s Medical Association, Dr.
Angelique Coetzee, told the BBC that the globe was “panicking unnecessarily.” The Omicron patients she has had
first-hand experience with presented “very, very mild symptoms.” None required
dramatic interventions, and all were treated “conservatively at home.” South
Africa’s Health Minister Dr. Joe Phaahla confirmed that the “majority” of Omicron
infections they’re “seeing are mild.”
Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, the head of Israel’s public
health services, came to a similar conclusion—Omicron spreads “very, very
fast,” but its spread has not yet been accompanied by worse outcomes for
infected patients. “If it continues this way,” one Israeli coronavirus expert said, “this might be a
relatively mild illness compared to the delta variant, and paradoxically, if it
takes over, it will lead to lower infection rates.”
There is reason to be concerned by this variant. Its
mutations could allow it to circumvent the protections provided by immunization
or natural infection, but there is no evidence yet that it will evade
those protections. Indeed, as University of California San Francisco
virologist, Dr. Monica Gandhi told the Dispatch, “It’s really hard for a variant to become
more transmissible and more virulent.” South Africa’s
specialists are only relating anecdotes, not clinical data. But the anecdotes
are not just all we have; they’re promising.
By the weekend’s end, a correction was underway. “We know
almost nothing about the Omicron variant,” read the headline in the Atlantic. Omicron may be transmissible, but “it
has a long way to go to take over from Delta,” CNN reported. “And the long list of variants that at first
frightened the world before falling off the map can be a reminder that viruses
are unpredictable.” The WHO sounded a similar note of overdue caution. “There
is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron
are different from those from other variants,” a Sunday statement out of the organization read. “It is
not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible” than its predecessors.
“There’s no reason to panic,” NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins told CNN on Sunday morning, “but it’s
a great reason to get boosted.” President Joe Biden did his best to relieve the
stress that overtook opinion-makers on Monday. “We’re going to fight and
beat this new variant today,” he said. But “not with shutdowns or lockdowns.”
Biden stressed that “this variant is a cause for concern, not a cause for
panic.”
But there was a panic. And if you have
investments in the market or need crucial elective surgeries in the state of
New York, it was a damaging one. Why was panic the default response of so much
of the news-consuming world over the weekend? And why have sobriety and
circumspection now returned to both media and markets? In part because panic has become a lifestyle
choice among an influential few.
The revivification of COVID as an acute emergency led
some particularly active communicators to retreat into the comfort of
existential dread. Of this, one instructive
Twitter thread produced by Boston University School of Public Health
Associate Professor Dr. Ellie Murray was indicative. Yes, she wrote, we must
continue to promote vaccines, disseminate rapid tests, and approve promising
therapeutics. But we must also restore masking mandates, prepare for business
closures, provide paid pandemic furloughs, legislate a constitutionally viable
moratorium on evictions, force airlines to absorb the cost associated with
socially distanced flights, take all winter social gatherings outside, and
develop “clear triggers to switch to hybrid or remote” learning in schools.
That is a lot of confidence to assign to these mitigation
measures when there is almost no confidence in the newly identified threat they
are supposedly designed to mitigate against. There may yet come a time to panic
over the emergence of this or future COVID mutations, but that time is not now.
This sort of display is explicable only as a psychological orientation, not a
considered response to a two-year-old public health crisis. Those who exhibit
this peculiar orientation have outsized influence over the national discourse.
As the weekend’s anxiety suggests, it isn’t helping.
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