By Noah Rothman
Friday, December
03, 2021
The U.K.’s top spy, Richard Moore, didn’t
mince any words in a rare interview with the BBC. The head of Britain’s foreign intelligence services warned that the
global geopolitical environment is growing only more unstable, and the West bears
much of the blame.
The threat posed by a Chinese
“miscalculation” in Beijing’s increasingly aggressive efforts to secure
regional hegemony poses “a serious challenge” to global peace. The “chronic
problem” posed by Russian recklessness and its irredentism in what Moscow deems
its “near abroad”—a euphemism for a sphere of influence that Vladimir Putin
believes is essential to preserve the country’s “strategic depth”—is an “acute
threat” to the Atlantic Alliance. The growing menace posed by reinvigorated
Islamist terrorist organizations looms ever larger. And to a measurable degree,
our present conundrum is Joe Biden’s fault.
Moore called Biden’s decision to
recklessly withdraw from Afghanistan on a unilaterally self-set timetable
“clearly wrong.” Ceding the country to the Taliban and stranding thousands of
Westerners behind enemy lines in the process provided a “morale boost for
extremists around the world, and indeed for those sitting in the capitals in
Beijing, Tehran, and Moscow.” That seems undeniable.
In the months that have passed since the
fall of Kabul, we’ve seen the return of
self-radicalized Islamist sympathizers committing
acts of terrorism in the West, and the increasing
tempo of Beijing’s threatening exercises near Taiwan has forced the Pentagon
and America’s Pacific allies to prepare for
the worst. These acute threats are eclipsed,
however, by the urgency of the menace in Moscow.
The news out of Eastern Europe is ominous.
The Russian
buildup along the Ukrainian border and in
occupied regions of the country, such as the Crimean peninsula, is
massive. Reporting
indicates that the Kremlin has begun
establishing supply lines and shuttling medical units to the region, which
could “sustain a drawn-out conflict, should Moscow choose to invade.” Russian
command-and-control elements are being inserted into the quasi-occupied Donbas
region of Ukraine, and indications are that the Kremlin has mobilized mechanized, armor, and mobile
artillery units. The sheer scale of these preparations has everyone on edge.
“Russia’s capabilities would be equivalent
to a modern-day blitzkrieg,” House Intelligence Committee Member Rep. Mike
Quigley told CNN. “We don’t know whether President Putin has made the decision to
invade. We do know that he is putting in place the capacity to do so on short
order should he so decide,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken agreed. “We must
prepare for all contingencies.” Ukraine’s
defense minister affirmed that “a large-scale
escalation from Russia exists,” estimating that Russia would achieve maximum
readiness by “the end of January.” But costly and logistically onerous buildups
like these aren’t sustainable forever; a forward-deployed military must either
be used or returned to base.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky delivered a speech before the country’s parliament warning
that Moscow will likely deploy a pretext—falsified claims of a Kyiv-led attack
on the Donbas or Crimea, for example—to justify a broader incursion into
Ukraine. The following day, Russian security
services announced that they had arrested a
Ukrainian national for allegedly trying to carry out a terrorist bombing inside
Russia on the orders of Ukrainian military intelligence. Both governments are
primed for war, and their respective publics are readying themselves for
a sustained military campaign and
prolonged resistance.
This is a scary prospect—one the West
seems unable to counter with anything resembling a credible threat of force
that might deter Russia from again violating European sovereignty as it did in
2014. This Russian military buildup initially felt similar to the brinkmanship
in which Moscow engaged in late March and early April of this year. Those border
tensions eased after Joe Biden proposed a bilateral
summit in the summer—a reward for Russian
aggression that, nevertheless, yielded few concessions to the Russian position.
In the months since that June meeting,
Vladimir Putin has seen ample evidence that Biden can be convinced to abandon
American allies—indeed, even American citizens—if the cost of living up to U.S.
commitments seems too much to bear. Why wouldn’t Putin test his luck now in
this objectively irresolute administration’s first year, when the political
pressure on the president from his domestic opposition is at its weakest?
That would be a risky gamble. The West’s
response to a breakout invasion of Ukraine is hard to predict. But that
uncertainty is likely emboldening elements inside the Kremlin who believe the
window to act is open now and not for much longer. Many factors over the better
part of a decade have brought us to this point, but it would be a mistake to
dismiss the Biden administration’s capitulation to a terrorist enterprise in
Afghanistan as one of the foremost circumstances that have brought Europe to
the brink. These are the wages of American cowardice. Sooner or later, they
will be paid.
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