By Jim Geraghty
Thursday, October 01, 2020
I feel as if I haven’t heard as much speculation about a
Biden cabinet and administration posts in the past month, and that strikes me
as an ominous sign about what to expect if a Biden presidency comes to pass.
Your mileage may vary, but broadly speaking, the
Establishment Democrats are less of a potential menace to conservatives than
the radical outsiders. The establishment wants the status quo with higher taxes
and more spending — with gobs upon gobs of opportunities for lobbying firms to
rake in the cash to ensure the legislation protects every imaginable faction,
industry, and business. (Great
news: Lobbyists are allowed to work for the Biden transition team!) The
radicals want to tear up the Constitution, overhaul every aspect of American
society, and ban farting cows.
The establishment tends to be self-interested and
insufferably enthusiastic about the nanny state, but competent by government
standards. The radicals cannot differentiate between theory and reality, have
little sense of how the world actually works, relish the idea of using the
power of government to punish those who disagree with them, and generally are
an even greater menace to everyone because of their incompetence. With the
establishment, you get someone like Michael Bloomberg. With the radicals, you get
someone like Bill de Blasio.
Back in 2019, David Swerdlick argued that Barack Obama was,
by the standards of the Democratic Party, actually kind of conservative: “The
former president was skeptical of sweeping change, bullish on markets, sanguine
about the use of military force, high on individual responsibility and faithful
to a set of old-school personal values. Compare that with proposals from his
would-be successors: Medicare-for-all, the Green New Deal, free college, a
wealth tax, universal basic income.”
I’m not sure I buy that. But the Obama administration was
populated in part by figures such as Tim Geithner, who was much less hostile to
Wall Street and the business community than Elizabeth Warren was. As White
House chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel rarely hesitated to clash with more liberal
and progressive voices in the early years of the Obama administration. Matt
Stoller argues that Obama was ultimately comfortable with the concentration of
wealth and power in the hands of billionaires. We can argue about whether the
Affordable Care Act was designed to fail and eventually force America to go to
single-payer, but unlike, say, Bernie Sanders, Obama wanted health-insurance
companies to continue to exist — and for you to pay a special tax if you didn’t
buy their product.
To me, the Democratic Establishment is perhaps best
personified by former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz. He’s an outspoken fan of
diversity, the environment, clean energy, gay rights, gun control . . . and
his company making lots and lots of money. If you’re conservative, you’re
not exactly thrilled with a new administration full of officials with this
mindset, but you probably prefer that to an administration full of officials
who are socially liberal and who want to tear down capitalism once and
for all.
For many conservatives, the best-case scenario of a Biden
presidency is he calls the Chris Dodds, Bruce Reeds, and Cedric Richmonds of
the world, the old Democratic Washington establishment, declares, “we’re
getting the band back together!” and spends four years frustrating and
disappointing Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s “Squad.”
I’m not saying conservatives would love the people who
would make up an Establishment-heavy Biden administration. But these people are
much less intent upon turning everything in America upside down, because
they’re already the establishment.
Ron Klain may be general counsel for an investment firm
called “Revolution,” but he doesn’t want an actual revolution. Tony Blinken is
going to move foreign policy leftward, but he’s not going to have any open
fights with Israel. Biden’s old chief of staff, Steve Ricchetti, is not a man
dedicated to destroying capitalism:
After the Clintons left the White
House, Ricchetti fully cashed out, building Ricchetti Inc. with his brother.
Armed with a long rolodex, the brothers grabbed a large slice of corporate
America as clients, including AT&T, General Motors, defense contractor
United Technologies, the American Council of Life Insurers, and the American
Bankers Association. But health care was always a large part of the business,
with multiple drug companies, insurance associations, and hospital trade groups
signing on.
When radical Democrats wanted to defund the police, Biden
proposed another $300 million for “community policing initiatives,” and Biden’s
policy chief Stef Feldman said it was designed to push police forces in the
right direction. Whether or not you like that particular proposal, it’s one of
the better recent examples of Biden telling the left wing of his party that
they can’t get what they want.
I’m not thrilled about the return of Anita Dunn to the
White House. Maybe she’ll bring back “Attack Watch!” But I had forgotten that
after leaving the Obama administration, Dunn had headed up an industry group
working against Michelle Obama’s healthy eating initiatives and for the
for-profit college industry.
Remember, the president appoints, and the Senate confirms
or rejects, roughly 750 significant executive branch positions. You may have no
desire to ever be the assistant secretary for disability employment policy at
the Department of Labor, assistant secretary for Financial Management and
Comptroller of the of the U.S. Army, or the alternate executive director of the
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. But the country is full
of wonky progressives who cannot wait to get their hands on the wheel of the
administrative state. (Those are all real positions, not a Weed
Agency parody, and they all have nominees selected by President Trump
who are awaiting action by the Senate.)
If Biden doesn’t have an Establishment crew ready to step
into the key spots, we will end up with more of the Angry Twitter Lefties
taking the behind-the-scenes policymaking positions. There will be a push to
make Elizabeth Warren Secretary of the Treasury. (Man, if she’s confirmed, that
official portrait of Geithner is getting moved to the basement.) Washington
governor Jay Inslee’s presidential bid was more or less ran an audition to be
the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. Beto O’Rourke and
Pete Buttigieg are probably going to get some cabinet posts; hopefully
O’Rourke’s won’t involve gun policy.
Ocasio-Cortez is probably not alone in her thinking that
Biden could gradually be pulled along into enacting a lot of the agenda Sanders
laid out in his two presidential campaigns:
Ms. Ocasio-Cortez barely hides her
lack of enthusiasm for Mr. Biden, although she says she believes that the
comfort he engenders could buy him ideological latitude. “I think the fact that
he is an older white man kind of has a Santa Claus soothing effect on a lot of
traditional voters,” she said. “I’m convinced that Biden could essentially
adopt Bernie’s agenda, and it would not be a factor — as long as he continued
to say things like malarkey. And just not be Trump.”
With Harris being vice president and/or
president-in-waiting, she may prefer a much less Establishment crew. Maya
Harris is probably going to end up on the vice-presidential staff somewhere.
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