By Michael Brendan Dougherty
Wednesday, October 28, 2020
There were always going to be challenges for Donald
Trump’s reelection. The first is that he wouldn’t be running against Hillary
Clinton, who managed to be extremely unpopular but threatening enough to unify
many Republicans underneath Trump’s banner. The second is that his 2016
campaign overpromised in a way that made it impossible for him to deliver. He
vowed to get rid of Obamacare, and “take care of everybody;” to increase
spending, and get rid of the national debt; to bring the troops home, and end
terrorism. He’d build a wall, and “Mexico would pay for it.” His only attempt
at playing both sides of the issue this time is his emphasis on “law and order”
when talking about rioters, but also attacking Biden’s crime bill and
emphasizing his own attempts at criminal-justice reform.
Running on a four-year record is obviously different. And
what we’ve found is that Trump’s need to work with existing Republicans in
Congress and in his administration has made his administration more like that
of a replacement-level Republican: tax cuts, conservative judges, and a foreign
policy of confrontation with Iran. The populist
Trump is almost gone. This is also a serious problem because it deprives
him of the chance to run partly against his own party, which surely helped him
win those crossover Obama-Trump voters. In 2016, a vote for Trump was not just
a vote against Hillary Clinton, but a vote for a different Republican Party.
But, one of the most underrated challenges for Trump is
that he is an entertainer, and the act is not new anymore. There’s a lack of
vitality to the Trump campaign, which isn’t great when his campaign is claiming
that Joe Biden has one foot in the grave. He’s lost the propulsive momentum of
upending expectations at every turn. We’re more than five years removed from
his trip down the escalator. And experienced television guys such as Trump know
that you need a refresh, but he hasn’t given us one.
What we have instead is a weird rerun. Sleepy Joe in the
place of Crooked Hillary. But the same exact plot twist is being tried again.
Instead of Anthony Weiner, Hunter Biden is in the role of the indiscreet and
avaricious horn dog whose computer is leading to an email scandal in the final
weeks of the campaign.
Without the pitch-perfect casting of the first season — a
Bush and a Clinton as antagonists — Trump has trouble relaying to the audience
what his role in the drama is. Has any debate line in 2020 hit as hard as that
moment four years ago when he turned on Hillary Clinton’s remark about how it’s
good that he’s not in charge of the law and snapped back, “Because you’d be in
jail.”
Like the comic relief inserted into a struggling sitcom,
Trump used to have catchphrases that were anticipated and repeated eagerly by
the audience. “And Mexico will pay for it.” And chants, “Lock her up.” What is
his line for this year?
Trump has trouble getting anything positive out of his
“norm-breaking.” And, because he is president, his words carry a different
weight. 2016 Trump could question any aspect of the bipartisan consensus and
probably get some juice out of it. He was a bold truth-teller, or the fool who
is wiser than the wise men. But 2020 Trump is also President Trump. When the
president floats the suggestion on Twitter of delaying the election, he comes
across to different audiences as alternately scared, out of control, or vaguely
menacing.
The president’s reelection agenda is about doing the
first term over again, restoring the economy that was destroyed by the virus.
Even the image of Amy Coney Barrett being sworn in on a balcony by Justice
Clarence Thomas had a kind of valedictory note in it. It was the kind of moment
that a struggling show ends its season on when the producers aren’t sure about
getting renewed.
Sometimes you even get the sense that his opponents and
antagonists have bought into the conceit of Trump’s drama. They have trouble
imagining that an election will happen and the spell will be broken. They are
hoping for a dramatic confrontation in the finale. They want Biden to ride in
with the U.S. military and all the decent Republicans and crowbar Trump off the
Resolute desk. They almost long for a last-minute gritty reboot, when Trump
energetically tries to root out the Deep State that undermined him.
I think the truth of the matter is more boring, even if less satisfying. Donald Trump the politician has no second act. Even if he’s reelected.
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