By Edward P. Lazear
Wednesday, September 09, 2020
President Trump and former vice president Biden have
different visions of the country’s future. President Trump, during a recent
event in Wisconsin, charged, “Joe Biden is just a Trojan horse for socialism.”
Although it is unlikely that a President Biden would turn the U.S. into a
socialist state, Mr. Biden has made it all too credible that he will move the
country leftward if elected president. He stated in early July, “It’s way past
time to put an end to the era of shareholder capitalism.” He chose as his
running mate Kamala Harris, who has the most
liberal voting record in the Senate. He joined with self-declared socialist
Bernie Sanders to issue “Unity Task Force Recommendations,” which Mr. Sanders
describes by saying, “If those task force proposals are implemented, you know
what, Joe Biden will become the most progressive president since Franklin
Delano Roosevelt.” Who would benefit from the more progressive agenda that is
suggested by Mr. Biden’s actions and words?
Advocates of free-market capitalism extol the growth that
the system produces and its freedom of choice over work and consumption.
Detractors protest that capitalism is harsh and leaves too many behind. The
market ignores hardships that afflict normal people through no fault of their
own.
The issue is primarily an empirical one. Do market
economies grow faster than those with a heavier governmental footprint, and if
so, do the poor benefit sufficiently as those economies grow? My
recent research suggests that market economies generate substantially
higher living standards for the poor than do government-dominated systems. A
country’s lowest earners fare best when markets are allowed to work, when the
means of production are privately owned, and when government’s role in economic
activity is limited.
Data on standard of living and economic freedom from as
many as 161 countries over the last few decades demonstrate that rich and poor
alike are economically better off in countries that have free-market economies.
One measure of capitalism is the rank of a country on the Fraser Economic
Freedom Index, which is a composite of indexes that reflect the use of markets,
the lack of regulation, the openness of the economy, and private ownership of
capital. Countries that score highest on this index include Singapore,
Switzerland, the United States, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. Venezuela has
the lowest ranking of all countries on the index. There are a number of similar
indexes, which are highly correlated with one another, and the conclusions are
insensitive to the choice of index.
The evidence that free markets enhance the well-being of
the poor is compelling. Define the rich as the uppermost 10 percent and the
poor as the lowest 10 percent of a country’s earners. In countries that rank in
the top half on the Economic Freedom Index, the rich have incomes that are on
average almost three times as high as the rich in countries that rank in the
bottom half of the index. But more striking is that in the free-market half of
countries, the income of the poor is almost six times higher than in the more
restrictive half. What’s more, within the ranks of the wealthiest half of
countries, the poor are more than twice as well off in those that are freer and
more market-oriented.
General economic growth tends to benefit all. The income
data show conclusively that, as President Kennedy was fond of saying, a rising
tide lifts all boats. Among the 161 countries studied, periods of high-income
growth for the rich also tend to be periods of high-income growth for the poor.
In 82 percent of the ten-year periods during which wages of the rich grew, so too
did wages of the poor. Conversely, the wages of the poor tended not to grow
during periods when wages of the rich declined. The movement is general. A 1
percent rise in median income is associated with just over a 1 percent rise in
income of the poor and just under a 1 percent rise in income of the rich. The
historical record suggests that the poor do not get left behind as economies
grow.
Despite the strong statistical relationship between wages
of the rich and poor, the movement is not in lockstep. Sometimes the incomes of
the richest members of an economy increase more rapidly than those of its
poorest members. This has led some to conclude, incorrectly, that rising
inequality implies falling or stagnant incomes of the poor. Economic
development is often marked by increased disparity between incomes of the rich
and poor, even as the standard of living of the poor rises substantially. Hong
Kong’s rapid growth from 1960 to 2000 is a case in point. In 1960, the rich
earned about 20 times as much as the poor. By 2000, that ratio had risen to 33.
At the same time, though, the income of the poor increased fivefold, making the
Hong Kong poor of 2000 far better off than the poor of the earlier generation.
More recently, Vietnam experienced a similar pattern. In 2000, the rich earned
27 times as much as the poor. Vietnam experienced rapid growth after that, and
the ratio of rich to poor earnings rose to 33. But the income of the poorest
Vietnamese went up two and a half times over those years.
One surprising finding from my study is that changing a
country’s name to eliminate the terms “socialist,” “democratic,” or “people’s”
is associated with an 18 percent rise in incomes of the poor over the
subsequent years. Of course, it is not the name change per se that helps the
poor, but the change in the form of government and the adoption of more
market-oriented institutions that accompanies the name change.
The Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and
Sweden) are market economies that have large government budgets and engage in
substantial redistribution. Unsurprisingly, the evidence implies that transfers
do have a positive effect on the disposable incomes of the poor—at a point in
time. If a country decides to transfer resources to the poor, then the poor
will have more to spend. Still, a number of considerations are relevant. First,
redistribution is a luxury that only wealthy countries can afford. There is a
close correlation between a country’s wealth and the amount that its citizens
transfer to the poor. Countries that rank in the top half in terms of transfers
and subsidies are almost three times as rich, as measured by median income, as
countries that rank in the bottom half. Second, the effect of increasing
economic freedom on raising incomes of the poor is typically greater than that
of direct transfers to the poor. Third, as I have argued before, high
government spending is an impediment to general economic growth and high income
in the future. Even countries such as Denmark and Finland, with high living
standards but also high government spending, have experienced slow growth over
the past decade. Finally, redistribution, which every wealthy country
implements to some extent, is a temporary patch. It does not provide a
fundamental long-term remedy for raising incomes of the poor. To raise incomes
over the long run, it is necessary to improve the productivity of the lowest
half of wage earners, as I have found in other research. Redistribution, while
serving an immediate humanitarian goal, does nothing to improve worker
productivity, on which wages ultimately depend.
Incomes of the poor are higher and grow more rapidly
under free-market capitalism than they do in economies with less private
ownership, more restrictions on trade, and a greater governmental role in
allocation. If a system’s benevolence is measured by the living standards of
the poor, then free-market capitalism receives high marks.
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