By Mona Charen
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
2013 will be remembered as the year President Barack
Obama's halo went askew. It deserves to be remembered for some other things.
It was the year Democrats killed the United States
Senate. If you missed the story, it's not surprising. When Sen. Harry Reid
eliminated the filibuster, it was billed as the Democrats' last-ditch response
to Republican "obstructionism." We were invited to play tu quoque
because Republicans had threatened to invoke the "nuclear option"
themselves in 2005. Largely ignored was Reid's relentless assault on Senate
traditions.
The body, most memorably described by George Washington
as the "saucer" into which legislation was poured to cool, had been
stripped of many of its traditions even before Reid pressed the nuclear button.
"The amendment days are over," Reid proclaimed in 2012. Underlining
the point, he filled the "amendment tree" of every important piece of
legislation, offering Republicans no opportunity to suggest alternatives. Reid
then demanded a cloture vote, often on the same day. The Reid reign is more
Capone than Cicero: no debate, no amendments, no time even to read bills.
Protecting minority rights and preserving the Senate's tradition of debate has
always been a triumph of the American system. The year 2013 sounded a tocsin.
It was a bad year for those who think they understand and
control vast, complicated systems. Yes, I'm thinking of Democrats and
Obamacare, but also the sun. Climate activists have assured us with chilling
urgency that the global temperature is rising and that turning the dial labeled
carbon dioxide several clicks to the left will avert catastrophe. Except 1)
it's nearly impossible to reduce CO2 (think China and India); 2) it's been 18
years since the atmosphere showed any warming despite increasing concentrations
of CO2; and 3) money spent on reducing CO2 cannot be spent on other problems.
Now, another variable seems to be misbehaving.
Apparently, the sun is weakening. "There is no scientist alive who has
seen a solar cycle as weak as this one," Andres Munoz-Jaramillo, who
studies the solar-magnetic cycle at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for
Astrophysics, told The Wall Street Journal. More than half of solar scientists,
according to the newspaper, speculate that the sun could be returning to a more
quiescent phase after a burst of activity that began in the 1940s. Or not. The
sun may be dimming a bit, but it may not affect global temperatures because
we've been pumping CO2 into the atmosphere. On the third hand, it's possible a
more pronounced solar minimum could yield another glaciation. During the last
one, an ice sheet one mile high covered most of North America.
A little humility about our capacity to predict something
as complex as climate would be welcome. It isn't a matter of trusting science
versus denying the scientific method. It's a matter of distrusting the herd
mentality that can affect scientists as well as other mortals. I happen to
think global warming may well be a serious problem for coastal regions in the
future. This much having been said, there are serious flaws in the way science
is conducted.
Consider cancer research. A rule of thumb among
biomedical venture capitalists, The Economist reports, is that half of
published research cannot be reproduced. A 2013 study by Amgen found that of 53
"landmark" cancer studies, only six could be replicated.
The pressure to publish is intense among academic
researchers, yet scientific journals prefer newsworthy findings to refutations
of older studies. A reported one-third of scientists confess to knowing of a
colleague who cherry picked data or excluded "inconvenient" facts to
tart up his or her research. Grants often flow to politically sexy topics like
global warming, and scientific dissenters from orthodoxy suffer some of the
same social and professional ostracism as heretics of an earlier time. The
heart of the scientific method is disproof. Skepticism then, not unflagging
belief in any particular theory of climate change, is the mark of the truly
enlightened mind.
Speaking of things we know for sure that just ain't so
(in the words of Mark Twain), 2013 was a year in which Mexico emerged as a
promising startup. Our impoverished and corrupt neighbor, from whom we just
knew we could expect an endless parade of illegal migrants year in and year
out, is producing jobs at an enviable clip. Per capita gross domestic product,
Pierpaola Barbier and Niall Ferguson write in The Wall Street Journal, is
outpacing Brazil, and a series of free-market reforms may well revitalize
Mexico's energy, telecom and education sectors.
So here's to a more open 2014: A senate more open to
amendments, science more open to scientific method and economies more open to
free markets.
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