By David Frum
Tuesday, November 03, 2026
Donald Trump won’t be able to cope. If he loses control
of one chamber of Congress, never mind both, the world will see a personality
collapse and rage meltdown on the scale of the final sequence of the Lord of
the Rings.
The Donald Trump of 2018 could cope, barely. Back then,
he had a number of things going for him. First, although Republicans suffered
heavy losses in the House, they gained two seats in the Senate. Trump
interpreted the Senate gains as proof that “people like me,” and the House
losses as a
rebuke to Trump-disloyal Republicans. “Mia Love,” he said of a Republican
who lost her seat in Utah, “gave me no love, but then she lost. Too bad.”
Second, the Trump of 2018 had the benefit of a strong economy. The war he was
fighting in Iraq and Syria was going well and commanded broad bipartisan
support, given that it had started under President Obama.
Third, Trump did not have a lot personally at stake in
the election of 2018. The big threat to him that year was the investigation of
his Russia connections by Special Counsel Robert Mueller. The Mueller
investigation was conducted within the executive branch. That investigation had
been initiated even though the Republicans held the House, and Trump was later
able to contain the damage from the investigation even though Republicans lost
the House. Fourth, Trump in 2018 was younger, nimbler, and planning for the
future: his reelection race in 2020.
Polls sometimes miss. But if the most recent ones are
accurate, the Trump of 2026 faces big losses in both chambers, all of them
directly implicating him. The president opened a Senate seat in North Carolina
by harrying the incumbent Republican, Thom Tillis, into retirement. Former
Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, now appears headed to a victory so big that he
may flip the state legislature too, potentially upending one of the most
successful Republican congressional gerrymanders. In the race for Ohio governor,
Trump endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy, whose noxious campaign may cost the GOP not
only another Senate seat, but the state legislature too. Trump even put a
Senate seat in Texas in play by favoring the radioactive Ken Paxton over the
popular incumbent, John Cornyn. Trump also started a war with Iran that he is
not winning. He imposed tariffs that have raised prices and hurt farmers. He
accelerated inflation with the deficits exacerbated by his so-called big,
beautiful bill.
The Trump of 2026 has a lot at stake in today’s
unignorable election. The second Trump administration is a network of scandals
and corruption. Subpoena power in the hands of his opponents will expose Trump
and his family to enormous legal and political risk. Unlike in 2018, large
numbers of Americans connect Trump’s self-enrichment to their economic decline.
Gallup found
that 89 percent of Americans agree that corruption is widespread in government,
up 10 points from just a year ago, and up 30 points from 20 years ago. That’s
far higher than in any other developed country, comparable to levels found in
Lebanon, Peru, Ghana, and Nigeria.
The Trump of 2026 is more addled and more clumsy than the
Trump of 2018. In his final preelection speech, he reminded voters of his
botched renovation of the Reflecting Pool on the National Mall in Washington,
D.C.—and mused about renaming the pool after himself.
Trump’s style of politics is authoritarian. He does not
inspire or negotiate. He issues orders. He demands submission. He makes
everything about himself. Trump never tried to broaden his support. He
blatantly favored disaster-aid requests from states with Republican governors
over those from states with Democratic governors. He was more likely to apportion tariff relief to
firms that donated to Republicans, and more likely to refuse relief to firms
that did not. When he encountered opposition in Congress, he responded
with insults that permanently alienated legislators whose help he might need
later.
Trump ruled his party by fear, and now the fear is
ebbing. On Sunday, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis made a campaign appearance
near Mar-a-Lago to call
on Republicans to take concerns about rising gas prices seriously—a cost most
Americans blame
on Trump’s Iran war. On November 1, the commentator Tucker Carlson posted on X a
claim that Trump was planning a nuclear strike on Iran—and that only Vice
President Vance and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff stood in his way. Somebody who
supports Vance is leaking to enhance his appeal at the expense of the
president.
Trump will not respond patiently to such challenges from
within. He holds
hundreds of millions of dollars in his MAGA
super PAC and related entities. Whatever remains after the races this year
could then go toward sustaining the Trump family’s political power—conceivably
backing a future presidential bid by one of Trump’s children.
If the Democrats take the House and subpoenas start
arriving, Trump will still retain control of the U.S. military and U.S.
security services. He can indict people, he can invade nations, he can invoke
emergency powers. He will get angrier, noisier, and crazier.
He doesn’t care about the future of his party. He doesn’t
care about the future of the country. He will want to punish a nation that, in
his view, has ungratefully rejected him. Corruptly obtained money never feels
secure. Trump, his children, and his inner group of close friends and
sycophants most enriched in the past two years have a lot to worry about as the
minutes of Trump’s presidency tick down.
The worst is yet to come.
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