By Victor Davis Hanson
Tuesday, March 08, 2016
Well before Donald Trump entered the race, there were
lots of warning signs that the Republican party was on the road to perdition.
After the marathon 20 debates of 2012, with the ten or so
strange candidates who brawled and embarrassed themselves, there had to be some
formula to avoid repeating that mob-like mess. Instead, in 2016 there were 17
candidates and 13 debates along with seven forums. There were supposed to be
tweaks and repairs that were designed to avoid the clown-like cavalcade of four
years ago, but they apparently only ensured a repetition.
Three of the most experienced candidates, at least in the
art of executive governance — Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, and Scott Walker — were
among the first to get out. The most experienced government CEOs somehow (or
logically?) performed poorly in the raucous debates and lacked the charisma or
the money or at least the zealous followers of Cruz, Rubio, and Trump.
Or they had too much pride (or sense) — unlike Carson,
Christie, Kasich, and Paul — to insist that they were viable candidates when
fairly early on, by most measurements, they were not. How strange that those
who would have been more credible candidates saw the writing on the wall and
left the field — to those marginalized candidates who had no such qualms and
ended up wasting months of their time and ours in splintering the vote,
engaging in endless bickering on crowded stages, and ensuring that there were
few occasions for any of them to distinguish himself. At some point, someone
should confess that Democratic debates further Democratic causes far more than
Republican debates help Republican causes.
The other veteran governor in the race, Jeb Bush, may
have felt, at 63 years old and eight years after the end of his brother’s
administration, that his presidential ambitions — born in the
pre-Trump-announcement days — were now or never. But after the failures of
McCain and Romney, the hard left drift of the country, and the spectacle of utter
chaos on the border, political correctness run amuck, the huge debt, Obamacare,
and the implosion of the Middle East, primary voters were in no mood for
another sober and judicious establishmentarian, however decent Jeb sounded. The
unfortunate outcome of the 2016 Bush campaign and its affiliates was spending
several million dollars to help destroy the candidacy of fellow Floridian
Senator Marco Rubio. That did nothing for Bush and only further empowered
Donald Trump. Never in all his business days has an enemy of Trump’s proved so
helpful to him.
Then there was the strange career of Chris Christie. His
campaign was an odd mixture of bullying and New Jersey tough-guy schtick with
temporizing and split-the-difference politicking in a year of take-no prisoners
politics. His bluster was Trumpian, but he was no Trump-like showman — and he
ended only with another destructive legacy of tearing down others without
helping himself. His mean-spirited candidacy confirmed that his 2012 ill-timed
hug of President Obama in the hours before the election was no accident. His
gratuitous attack on Rubio — followed by his obsequious lapdog role with Trump
(who does not suffer toadies gladly) — proved kamikaze-like, blowing up the
attacker while damaging somewhat his target.
Then there was the Republican establishment’s assumption
that the supernova Trump would on its own burn out by last autumn. That was an
odd expectation for a variety of reasons. Did no one remember the gubernatorial
campaigns of the similar celebrity blowhards Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jesse
Ventura? Did the Republicans forget that just because TV or movie personalities
may prove failures in office does not mean that they cannot get elected, at
least one time? The Apprentice may be
schlock TV, but it would be impossible to continue a narcissistic reality
franchise for 14 seasons without having a P. T. Barnum genius for discerning a
fickle public’s shifting tastes. In normal times, a presidential candidate on a
debate stage implying that his phallus was large would be seen as a crude and
uncouth disqualification for the job; in Trump’s view, it is an LBJ-like
reassurance that a real hunk would be president.
It was brilliant for Trump to boast that he would take no
tainted campaign money — on the assumption that his celebrity glitz would
obviate that need anyway by ensuring him hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth
of free publicity. Smarter still were his pouts and threats and occasional
outbursts to journalists, which in passive-aggressive fashion terrified the
supposedly courageous media; as a result, timid journalists treated him as if
they were sitting next to a smiling cobra, who could hiss and strike at any
moment.
Trump cleverly contradicted and sometimes even retracted
his loonier pronouncements, which had the effect of making him “flexible” and
“realistic” rather than an extremist or at least a flip-flopper and hypocrite.
As politicos derided the fact that Trump had no advisers, senior wise men, or
planned Cabinet members, Trump smiled: The supposed void was honey to has-been
party fixtures and careerists, who flocked in and provided “legitimacy,” each
imagining himself the new brain implanted in the Frankenstein monster.
Nor did party pros fathom that precisely because Trump
was not wedded to any ideology, it was that much easier for him to emerge in
2016 in a new incarnation as a fed-up populist insurrectionist, who appeared to
be the “real” rebel conservative in the race. In other words, once Trump
entered the campaign, his politics would become as fluid as Ross Perot’s
idiosyncratic 1992 bid, but this time even more so, given that the fed-up
challenger was a Republican insider maverick. In a year when wealth and
privilege were looked askance upon, Trump turned privilege on its head: It
takes the people’s rich man to know how corrupt rich men have rigged the
system.
It required ten debates and a winnowed-down field for
other candidates finally to do to Trump what they had already done to one
another. And by then the desperate level of invective needed to damage the
Trump locomotive ensured that the attacker appeared as mean-spirited as Trump
himself. Marco Rubio, a decent sort, has by his playground attacks seriously
wounded Trump, but by matching Trump smear for smear probably also fatally
hobbled his own candidacy. Odder still, at about the time that Republicans were
wising up that Trump’s shenanigans, incoherence, and puerility needed to be
fully exposed, he was already shedding his lizard skin and growing a
front-runner magnanimous exoskeleton. The day-late-and-dollar-short attacks
were now falling on a sometimes “presidential” Trump, and not on the cruder
Trump that had so richly earned them just weeks earlier.
The final act was the subtext of the entire primary
season: Trump, with 30 to 35 percent of the vote, besting all comers, who among
them garnered two-thirds of the Republican vote. Even as the fickle media
shouted nightly that Trump was the new face of a new Republican party, voters
throughout the summer and fall of 2015 quietly wondered when the opposition
would unite and bury Trump 2 to 1. But egos and careers are powerful narcotics,
never clearer than in a Bush, a Carson, or a Kasich for months assuring the
media and the public that their 5 percent showings were proof that they were
ascendant.
We are left with a few unanswered questions: Will there
soon be a deal between Rubio and Cruz, in which the latter will informally buy
the former’s delegate share for the price of an important appointment? And if
this were done adroitly, would Reagan Democrats then see that Cruz is a
populist himself, or would they still instead view him as a Trump-slaying
Beltway, Ivy League ideologue whose principles were not blue-collar friendly,
leaving them with no reason to come out and vote in November?
If Cruz fades again, will those establishmentarians who
walk out on Trump prove more numerous than the Reagan Democrats who will walk
in?
Is Trump’s continued skilled hijacking of the Republican
party a sign that he could similarly hijack the general election — and the
presidency?
Lost in this tragicomedy is the fact that either Cruz or
Rubio might beat Hillary Clinton — or, stranger still, that many conservatives
could not stomach a nominated Trump, whose latest positions, on paper at least,
are far more conservative than are Clinton’s. And if Clinton is indicted — or
if a failure to indict is followed by resignations in the FBI — would then even
Trump easily win, and, if so, would his own party consider that rare Republican
presidential victory a windfall or a curse? Is the Buckley-inspired
conservative rule of choosing the most conservative candidate who can
realistically win still valid?
Finally, the stop-Trump furor of the Republican
establishment was privately predicated on Rubio as the alternative. That may be
quite unlikely, given Cruz’s frequent Phoenix-like surges. If Cruz manages to
beat Trump, will those who signed petitions damning Trump now rally behind the
nominee — or do they consider Cruz also too quirky and polarizing, and, if so,
are they really neo-liberals rather than neo-cons?
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