Vote Republican If You Want Equal Pay

By Casey B. Mulligan
Friday, September 12, 2008

Democratic candidates Barack Obama and Joseph Biden have proclaimed that they favor equal pay for women, and have alleged that Republicans do not. Sen. Biden has also insisted that Republicans, including vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, represent a step backwards for women. The economic record says exactly the opposite.

I have used labor market data from the Census Bureau to study the amount and reasons for women's progress in the labor market since the 1960s. One byproduct of my study is a calculation of women's relative wage growth by presidential administration.

In 1980 -- the last full year of the Jimmy Carter administration -- the typical woman (older than school age, but younger than retirement age) working full time throughout the year earned 38.5% less per hour than did the typical man in the same age bracket working full time throughout the year. When women earn less per hour than men -- even in full-time work -- that is known as the gender wage gap. When the gender wage gap narrows, women's wages have grown relative to men's.

The gender wage gap was 38.6% in 1976, the last full year of the Gerald Ford administration. By this measure, women made only infinitesimal progress toward equal wages during the four Carter years; women's wages were essentially stagnant relative to men's. In 1988, the last full year of the Ronald Reagan administration, women working full time throughout the year earned 30.3% less per hour than did men.

A 30.3% gender wage gap is obviously not full equality. But it is much closer to equality than it was at the end of the Carter administration. Women's wages grew almost two percentage points per year more than men's during the Reagan years, compared to less than 0.1 percentage point more than men's per year during the Carter years.

The nearby chart shows the results for all of the administrations since Lyndon Johnson (I pool Richard Nixon and Ford). Johnson, Carter and Bill Clinton were all Democrats, yet none of them witnessed much labor market progress for women during their administrations. Essentially all of the labor-market progress for women occurred during Republican administrations: eight years of Reagan, four years of George H.W. Bush, and six years of George W. Bush (I do not yet have the data for the last two years of the current administration).

By 2006, the gender wage gap had narrowed to 21%. The Nixon-Ford administrations were the only Republican administrations that failed to witness significant reduction in the gender wage gap during their terms.

Sen. Obama says that he wants equal pay for women. If the historical record is any guide, the best way to achieve this is to work for a labor market that creates opportunities for women like it did during the Reagan and the Bush years. At the Reagan-Bush years' pace, the gender wage gap in 2016 would be down to about 12%. At the Carter-Clinton years' pace, women will not see new opportunities, and the gender pay gap will be essentially where it is today.