Obama and the German Question

By Matthew Kaminski
Friday, July 25, 2008

Barack Obama soaked up the love yesterday in Berlin. The backdrop, so rich in historical symbolism and television potential, was apt for a reason few acknowledged. Should the Democratic candidate become president and reach out to Europe, Germany will determine how successful he is.

Much has been made of the need to improve America's image in Europe. This narrative is some two years past its sell-by date. President Bush may not be popular at home or on the Continent, but America is again the ally of choice. On Iran, Russia, China and the Mideast, the big players of the European Union eagerly and pragmatically seek out U.S. leadership; in the surprise twist of this century so far, France leads the way.

Berlin is the exception. Its foreign policy can be charitably described as inconsistent and confused -- and infused with a strain of anti-Americanism hard to find among other European ruling elites these days.

Part of the problem is the so-called grand coalition. After an inconclusive election in 2005, Chancellor Angela Merkel shares power with the left-wing opposition. Her foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, was her predecessor Gerhard Schröder's chief of staff; in elections due next year, he'll possibly lead the Social Democrats into battle against her and the Christian Democrats.

Like his previous boss (Mr. Schröder is now on the Kremlin's payroll at gas giant Gazprom), Mr. Steinmeier nurtures friendly ties with Moscow and is cool toward Washington. Chancellor Merkel's instincts lead her in an opposite direction, yet she has shown little leadership on foreign policy of late, possibly to avoid a costly fight before elections.

In April, Germany derailed an American push at NATO to reach out to Ukraine and Georgia. Mr. Steinmeier said there are "limits" to Russia's patience. Russia showed its gratitude by almost immediately stirring up trouble for Georgia in the breakaway region of Abkhazia, putting the Caucasus on the brink of another war. Close Merkel aides were taken aback and one told me in Berlin the other week that "we can't give an inch" to Russia. A bit late for that now.

On Afghanistan, Ms. Merkel has always sided with her foreign minister. Germany's large troop contingent isn't allowed to leave its safe northern bases to join the U.S.-led fight against the Taliban in the south. "The only thing the [coalition] parties have in common is, 'Don't send troops to southern Afghanistan!'" says Omid Nouripour, a German MP who belongs to the Green Party, which isn't in government.

So there are likely limits to German Obamamania, which is anyone-but-Bush-mania by another name. Mr. Obama wants Europe's support for expanded military operations in Afghanistan; so, for that matter, does John McCain. The Democratic candidate backs NATO enlargement; ditto the Republican. France and Italy, both led by men who want closer trans-Atlantic ties, are loosening restrictions put on their forces in Afghanistan and are open to enlarging the NATO alliance. Yet Ms. Merkel this week pre-empted the Obama visit by ruling out any change on Germany's deployment in Afghanistan. "I will make the limits very clear [to Mr. Obama], just as I have done with the current president," she said. Welcome to Berlin.

Ms. Merkel, who was brought up in Soviet-dominated East Germany, is a political outsider who looks the part of a leader able to break the longstanding German policy mold. In one of her best moments, she calmly told Vladimir Putin last year to lay off his hounded political opponents; the Russian leader looked stunned.

She can build on some recent positive trends. Germany has in the past decade sent troops to crisis zones from Kosovo to Congo, breaking a post-1945 taboo about foreign military deployments. In Afghanistan, Germany has the third most troops after the U.S. and Britain.

But the pacifist training drummed into generations of leaders after World War II has tied Germany into psychological and political knots. To the ruling class, "atonement [for the war] is Germany's chief political capital, its very own soft power," notes Constanze Stelzenmüller of the German Marshall Fund. "Luckily for Europe, neither the British, nor the French, nor the Swedes or the Poles have qualms about using the entire gamut of their toolbox of power, from diplomacy and suasion to military force."

Mr. Obama invoked the collapsed Berlin Wall repeatedly yesterday in his speech on U.S.-European relations. But the old Cold War "German Question" has merely changed, not disappeared. Russia knows Germany is a pivotal country in Europe. Mr. Putin has set out to co-opt its politicians (hence Schröder of Gazprom) and divide the West through Germany. Any American president who seeks to build on the recent progress in forging a new partnership with Europe will have to contend with a wobbly Germany.