National Review Online
Wednesday, April 07, 2021
As the Biden administration launched indirect talks
in Vienna on Tuesday with the hopes of reviving the disastrous Obama-era
Iranian nuclear deal, a spokesman for the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism
preemptively declared victory.
“We find this position realistic and promising,” regime
flack Ali Rabiei said of the expectation that President Biden would
agree to lift crippling sanctions. “It could be the start of correcting the bad
process that had taken diplomacy to a dead end.”
The “bad process” refers to the maximum-pressure campaign
during which the Trump administration actually took seriously Iran’s nuclear
ambitions and its destabilizing influence in the region. Trump imposed
punishing sanctions on Iran and took out the chief architect of its terrorism
strategy, Qasem Soleimani. And he rightly withdrew from the nuclear deal,
formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (or “JCPOA”), in 2018.
While no immediate breakthrough is expected this week,
Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who led the Iranian delegation,
called Tuesday’s discussions constructive and announced that “expert level”
talks will continue on Friday.
It’s no surprise that the regime is so giddy. The mere
existence of these discussions has demonstrated the Biden administration’s
interest in diplomatic theater to obscure its movement toward Tehran’s
negotiating position.
On February 7, Biden was asked during an interview with CBS if he would lift
sanctions to get Iran back to the table. He responded simply: “No.” He also
indicated that Iran would have to stop enriching uranium first.
But the cracks had started to show in the lead-up to
Vienna. Last Friday, the U.S. special envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, told PBS NewsHour, “the United States knows
that, in order to get back into compliance, it’s going to have to lift those sanctions that are inconsistent with
the deal that was reached with Iran and the other countries involved in the
nuclear deal.”
On Monday, ahead of the talks, State Department
spokesperson Ned Price dodged a question on sanctions relief. “I will leave it
to the negotiators to detail positions,” he said, effectively leaving the
possibility open.
The Wall Street Journal quoted a senior
administration official that same day, explaining that the Iranians have asked
for “an initial gesture that would pave the way to those talks,” such as
sanctions relief. He added, “It was their idea, and we went along.”
To be clear, there’s no guarantee that the U.S. ends up
offering sanctions relief as a direct result of the Vienna talks, though that’s
where things seem to be going. Either way, the talks indicate that the Biden
administration would like to shift the debate from whether it should reenter a
bad deal to how it can do so as an intermediate step toward a “follow-on
agreement” that addresses other aspects of Iran’s behavior.
The deal that the Obama team negotiated was fundamentally
flawed if the goal was to restrain Iran. It enabled hundreds of billions of
dollars to flow to Iran up front, while allowing the regime to continue work on
ballistic missiles and to maintain a “civilian” nuclear program. In a frenzy to
get Iran to agree to restrictions on uranium enrichment, negotiators did not
address Iran’s sponsorship of international terrorism. And yet, a sunset clause
allowed restrictions on enriching uranium to start to phase out over ten to 15
years.
Even if Iran were to have followed the agreement to the
letter, it would still have been allowed to become a more potent conventional
threat and carry out terrorism while maintaining the long-term option of
becoming a nuclear power. Of course, it has repeatedly violated the deal
anyway, maintaining a nuclear archive the whole time. More recently, in
February, the International Atomic Energy Agency announced that Iran had produced uranium metal at one
of its nuclear plants.
Even modest steps to lift the Trump-era sanctions will
all but sabotage any hopes of getting Iran to make any sort of concessions on
the myriad of issues that the Obama deal failed to address. Any form of
sanctions relief will be a lifeline to the regime, which had been hamstrung by
the maximum-pressure campaign.
In the weeks leading up to Vienna, top Biden officials
have clearly signaled that such concessions are in the offing. Additionally,
they are repeating one of the core mistakes made by Obama’s national-security
team. That is, out of a desperation to sign a deal that they could claim dealt
with the nuclear issue, the Obama administration looked the other way when it
came to Iran’s malign behavior around the world and jumped at every chance to
grease the wheels of negotiations.
Similarly, under Biden, U.S. officials reportedly held
discussions with South Korea about unfreezing Iranian assets tied up by oil
sanctions there. They’ve declined to oppose a potential $5 billion IMF loan to
the country, and have apparently turned a blind eye to Iranian oil sales to
Chinese firms that would violate sanctions.
All the while, the administration has telegraphed that it
will do very little to apply pressure to Iranian proxies, and that it’s even
reducing the U.S. military footprint in the Gulf region. Unlike the Trump
administration, the Biden team has failed to link Iran’s regional activity with
its nuclear problem. It has already removed the Foreign Terrorist Organization
designation of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, and the sanctions on the chopping
block are reportedly terrorism-related.
From the start, the administration has promised to seek a
“longer and stronger” deal to address these matters after both sides return to
full compliance with the JCPOA. The trouble is that once the U.S. implements
sanctions relief, Tehran will have no incentive to negotiate an additional
agreement. The Biden administration will have squandered hard-won leverage with
nothing to show for it.
The only way this strategy makes sense is if it is by
design. It’s no secret that Obama officials envisioned a realignment in the
Middle East away from traditional alliances with Israel and Arab Gulf states
toward a region in which Iran is more influential. And there is reason to
believe that the Biden administration, which includes many of the same
officials, shares a similar mentality. Concessions that make Iran more
economically powerful are consistent with this vision.
Either way, it is clear that when Washington and Tehran
eventually sit down for direct talks, the latter will have the upper hand,
undermining U.S. regional allies and making it easier for Iran to achieve its
nuclear ambitions and threaten the world.
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