By Kevin D. Williamson
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Donald Trump protests that his ascent to the White House
is threatened by a “rigged election.” By the phrase “rigged election” he means
different things at different times: that the media treats him unfairly, that
other institutions have failed in their duties, that illegal votes will be
cast.
All of those are absolutely true, but that is not why
Donald Trump is going to lose the election. He will lose because he has failed
to win over the voters of — let’s go ahead and call the roll here — the swing
states of New Hampshire (+11 Clinton), Virginia (+11 Clinton), Michigan (+8
Clinton), Colorado (+7 Clinton), North Carolina (+6 Clinton), Pennsylvania (+6
Clinton), along with the voters of conservative Georgia (+4 Clinton) and
practically every traditionally Democratic state (Trump boasted that he’d put
states such as New Jersey, Connecticut, and New York into play, but is in fact
losing them by 12, 15, and 20 points, respectively). They are not buying what
Trump is selling. Florida is in the toss-up column, which is to be expected,
but then so is Texas, which is
catastrophic. Utah may very well go for a candidate who may not technically be
named “Egg McMuffin” but who may as well be.
Trump is wrong in the conclusions he draws from his
complaints, but that does not subtract from the truth of those complaints.
That the news media’s attitude toward Hillary Rodham
Clinton vacillates between kid-glove deference (CNN) and outright sycophancy (Politico’s Glenn Thrush) is too
well-established to merit my rehearsing it here, and the failure of the Justice
Department and other federal agencies in the Clinton e-mail matter is beyond
dispute (Andrew C. McCarthy has left James Comey’s reputation in such a
condition that its remains cannot be detected by conventional scientific
instruments). These are important questions for this election.
But the question of actual electoral fraud is an issue
for every election, and bears further consideration.
Try as our Democratic friends might, there is no denying
that fraudulent voting happens. Illegal immigrants and other non-citizens cast
votes: Research from politics professors Jesse Richman and David Earnest finds
that one in six non-citizens are registered to vote, and many of them report
voting illegally. Legal U.S. voters have been found illegally voting in
multiple states. Efforts to purge voter rolls of ineligible voters, e.g. dead
people, have been resisted strongly by Democrats, as have efforts to see to the
enforcement of laws against voting by felons. It is easily within the realm of
statistical possibility that these votes have been decisive in at least two
elections: Al Franken’s 2008 Senate election and Barack Obama’s 2008 victory in
North Carolina.
For Democrats, this is a game of moving the goalposts.
Their first objection was: Illegal voting doesn’t happen. When it was
decisively shown that it does happen, the criterion changed: Well, it doesn’t
happen very much. When it was decisively shown that voting infractions are
fairly common, the criterion changed again: There’s no dispositive evidence
that illegal voting has thrown a major election.
The goalpost-moving game is a funny one. At the same time
they deny or attempt to minimize fraudulent voting, Democrats have made a great
fuss about “voter suppression,” which usually consists of such sneaky
Republican dirty tricks as requiring that voters show up at the polls with a
photo-ID card made available to them free of charge at the local DMV. (The
libertarian in me suspects that making regular DMV visits a mandatory part of
the voting experience would do more to reform American politics than all the
think-tank wonkery combined.) Democrats also strongly resist efforts to enforce
ordinary laws against fraudulent voting by dead people (Lyndon Johnson’s
second-most-important constituency, behind household pets), prisoners,
disenfranchised felons, and the like. Even if we buy the argument that there’s
no real evidence that illegal voting has thrown an election, there’s no
evidence that voter-ID laws or enforcing other voting laws has thrown an
election, either. The focal distance of these stories is forever changing: If
the question is purported “disenfranchisement,” then anecdote rules and
statistical questions are set aside; if the question is illegal voting, then
statistical claims are central and anecdotes are dismissed as uninformative.
That’s cheap high-school debaters’ stuff, but it works
more often than you’d think.
The fact is that we should be opposed to illegal voting
even if it is only desultory and rare, even if it amounts to something less
than a decisive factor in electoral outcomes. For one thing, it is wrong, malum in se, and for another, it
actually does what the Democrats accuse Trump of doing: It undermines
confidence in the legitimacy of U.S. elections. Shootings by police officers in
questionable confrontations are not the leading killer of black men in the
United States, or among the top-ten causes of death for black men, or the top
100 or the top 1,000. (For teenaged black men, it’s homicide, suicide, and
heart disease; for black men in their 20s, 30s, and 40s, HIV and strokes emerge
as top causes of early death.) But if it were the case that black men are being
wrongly killed by police officers, we would want to act on that irrespective of
whether it was a statistically significant cause of death, because it is wrong
and because it undermines confidence in law enforcement.
The hypocrisy is difficult to bear. For the entirety of
the 21st century, Democrats have complained that George W. Bush and an
illegitimate, corrupt Supreme Court intervened to rob Al Gore of the
presidency. But there is more to it than that. For years, Democrats from
Hillary Rodham Clinton to Bernie Sanders to Elizabeth Warren have complained
that the economic system is rigged by shadowy international elites against the
interests of ordinary people. We have not seen very much in the way of
political rioting, but we have seen significant violence in response to that
kind of rhetoric, from riots in Seattle to attempted acts of terrorism in Ohio.
Should Democrats cease speaking about the “rigged”
economic system because of that violence? No, they should cease making the
claim that our economic system is rigged because that claim is false.
We should continue talking about illegal voting because
the claim is true, and because it is
necessary that we do something about it.
Despite the hysterical ninnies, this is not the most
important election of our lifetimes, nor is it likely to be the last American
presidential election, as some of our apocalyptic friends insist. There will be
future elections, and we will need to do something to ensure that they are not
marred by fraudulent voting.
Fuming, sputtering Donald Trump, in his coming
retirement, probably is not going to be a great deal of help in that project.
But that does not mean that there isn’t something to his complaint.
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