By M.G. Oprea
Monday, October 31, 2016
Imagine Russian school children practicing putting on gas
masks and transporting dummies onto stretchers. TV stations show Russian
emergency workers in hazmat suits working on bomb shelters. Huge numbers of the
population rehearse what to do in case of a nuclear attack. It sounds like a
scene from “The Americans” or a video from Soviet-era Russia. But it’s not.
This is what’s been going on in Russia in the past few weeks.
Russia is engaged in mass-scale nuclear attack
preparations. Moscow is upgrading its civil defense plans, including making an
inventory of all underground spaces to ensure it could shelter 100 percent of
the population if a nuclear bomb hit. Current bomb shelters are being rehabbed
and ventilation systems checked. Forty million Russians were involved in a
drill simulating what to do in the event of a chemical or nuclear weapons
strike.
This might seem surprising or unthinkable. But if you’ve
been paying attention to the escalation of tensions between Russia and the
United States, this fits perfectly into Russia’s intensifying belligerence and
assertion of power.
It’s Been Getting
Worse for Years
In the last few months, Russia’s relationship with
America has begun to fray. But this mounting antagonism began much earlier,
with Russia’s annexation of the Crimea and incursion in the Ukraine in 2014.
Russia was testing how the West, including Europe and the United States, would
react to it making land grabs in Eastern Europe. To its delight, the West did
nothing. This set the stage for Russia to begin increasing its global show of
force, and was a precursor to the inevitable invasion of one of the Baltic
States.
Tensions further rose when Russia began fighting
alongside Syrian President Bashar al Assad in the ongoing brutal civil war.
Under the auspices of attacking ISIS, Russia’s air force has helped Assad
pummel Syrian rebels and civilians, creating a humanitarian crisis in Aleppo.
Despite numerous efforts at diplomacy by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry,
the diplomatic process has completely deteriorated. Adding to the chaos, after
a mistaken American strike on Syrian troops, Russia threated to shoot down
American planes if its troops felt threated.
As a reaction to crumbling negotiations in Syria, Russia
declared earlier this month that it was withdrawing from a 2000 nuclear
security agreement with the United States that called for disposing plutonium.
The now-defunct treaty also required Russia not to use any plutonium for
nuclear activities.
Russia is also putting its military capabilities on
display. This week, Russia launched an advanced hypersonic glider warhead that
is nearly undetectable to U.S. anti-missile systems. This was done in
preparation of a new nuclear weapon, named “Satan 2,” that could reportedly
destroy all of Texas with one strike. Putin has also moved nuclear-ready
missiles to the Kaliningrad region that are capable of striking Poland and
parts of Germany. In addition, last week, Russian warships heading through the
English Channel toward Syria skimmed the Dover coast with machine guns aimed at
the shore and fighter pilots sitting at the ready in their jets.
Russia has also been asserting itself in the realm of
electronic warfare. The American government has accused Russia of interfering
with the presidential election, including hacking the computers of the
Democratic National Committee. There’s further fear that Russian hackers will
tamper with election results. Russia’s trying to discredit our democratic
system, and it seems to be working. Only 43 percent of Americans think their
votes will be counted accurately in the presidential election. Donald Trump, of
course, is encouraging these fears.
We’re Not Afraid
of You
With these acts of hostility Russia is signaling to us, and
the rest of the world, that they’re not afraid of confrontation with the West.
Does this mean they’re on the cusp of starting a nuclear war? Doubtful. But
they certainly mean for us to take them seriously as a major world power, and
one that isn’t afraid to get its hands dirty. The nuclear attack drills fit
neatly into these recent escalations. They’re Russia’s way of saying, “We’re
ready. Are you?”
The answers seems to be “no.” In 2012, President Obama
mocked Mitt Romney in a presidential debate for having suggested that Russia is
our primary national security threat. Obama condescendingly told Romney that
the 1980s were calling and they want their foreign policy back. It’s remarkable
that just four years ago our president considered the idea of an aggressive
Russia laughable.
Fast-forward to today, and Obama’s words seem naïve and
ignorant. But it’s not clear that much has changed. Russia is resurrecting
Soviet-era tactics and moving, with allies like Iran, to change the
international order, and we’re still acting like they’re our partners in places
like Syria.
Putin’s recent actions, especially the nuclear attack
drills, could also be seen as a way to distract the Russian people from a
declining economy. By whipping them up into a national security frenzy, Putin
can deflect criticism about domestic policies. This is a tried and true tactic
of leaders who fear losing power. Tell citizens they’re under threat of attack,
and they’ll rally to the cause of their country. Their sense of national pride
will soar, and so will the government’s approval ratings.
Putin is stoking national pride and anti-American
sentiments to keep the loyalty of the people, and this isn’t hard to do. The
Russian people already hold overwhelmingly
negative views toward America and are nostalgic for the Soviet era. But
just because these drills and other displays of force are being used to
manipulate the Russian people doesn’t mean they don’t also represent a genuine
threat to America and other NATO allies. The two scenarios aren’t mutually
exclusive, as some seem to think.
While Russia is preparing for a nuclear attack and
beefing up their military presence, the American people view ISIS, not Russia,
as the number one threat to their country. Russia was ranked seventh—below
climate change. Are Americans ready for a belligerent Russia, or do they, like
Obama in 2012, scoff at the very idea?
The Russian government and its people seem to think the
Cold War is back (or that it never really ended). But our own disbelief in this
threat won’t change the fact that Russia aims to misbehave.
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