Monday, April 30, 2012
Last week, Barack Obama delivered speeches at
universities in Chapel Hill, N.C., Iowa City, Iowa, and Boulder, Colo. The trip
was, press secretary Jay Carney assured us, official government business, not
political campaigning.
It's part of a pattern. Neil Munro of the Daily Caller
has counted 130 appearances by the president, vice president, their spouses,
White House officials, and Cabinet secretaries at colleges and universities
since spring 2011.
Obviously, the Obama campaign strategists are worried
that he cannot duplicate his 66 to 32 percent margin among young voters back in
2008.
Recent surveys of young people show inconsistent results.
Gallup's tracking shows Obama leading Mitt Romney 64 to 29 percent, and a
Harvard Institute of Politics poll shows him leading Romney 43 to 26 percent
among those who said they had an opinion.
But a March survey of 18- to 24 year olds by the Public
Religion Research Institute showed Obama ahead of "a Republican" by
only 48 to 41 percent. Only 52 percent had favorable opinions of Obama, and 43
percent had unfavorable opinions.
Where the surveys seem to be in accord is that young
voters are less engaged, less likely to vote and less enthusiastic about Obama
than in the days when he was proclaiming, "We are the change we are
seeking."
Gallup shows only 56 percent of Americans under 30 saying
they definitely will vote. Among older Americans, the figure is over 80
percent. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed only 45 percent of
young people taking a big interest in the election, down from 63 percent in
2008.
Hispanics and blacks make up a larger share of the
Millennial generation than of older Americans, and Obama's support among them
seems to remain high. But the Harvard survey shows that only 41 percent of
white Millennials approve of Obama's job performance, significantly lower than
the 54 percent who voted for him in 2008.
Obama's decision to campaign -- er, conduct official
business -- on university campuses last week was not surprising. According to
exit polls, there was no surge of young voters in 2008. They made up 18 percent
of voters, compared to 17 percent in 2004.
But close inspection of the election returns showed that
the Obama campaign did a splendid job of ginning up turnout in university and
college towns and in singles apartment neighborhoods in central cities and close-in
suburbs, like Arlington, Va., across the Potomac from Washington.
Consider the counties where Obama spoke last week. In
Orange County, N.C., Obama won 72 percent of the vote. He did better in only
one of the state's 99 other counties, Durham, which has a large black
population plus Duke University.
Obama carried Johnson County, Iowa, with 70 percent of
the vote, more than in any of Iowa's other 98 counties. He carried Boulder
County, Colo., with 72 percent, a mark exceeded in that state only in Denver,
one rural Hispanic county and two counties with fashionable ski resorts (Aspen,
Telluride).
What Obama doesn't seem to have done in 2008 is mobilize
more economically marginal and educationally limited young people, except
perhaps among blacks.
His problem this year is that there are a lot more
economically marginal young people, including many who are not educationally
limited.
Young people are notoriously transient, and it's hard for
political organizers to track them down. Harder perhaps this year, with many
recent college graduates unable to find jobs and a rising percentage of young
people moving in with their parents.
Few young Americans bothered to vote in Republican
primaries, and young people's attitudes toward Mitt Romney seem frosty. They
still know little about him.
That gives him a chance to argue that Obama's economic
policies have failed and that his policies can spark an economic revival that
will provide myriad opportunities for the iPod/Facebook generation to find
satisfying work where they can utilize their special talents.
In his campus speeches, Obama stumped for keeping low
interest rates on student loans. But young people may be figuring out that
colleges and universities are gobbling up the money government pours in,
leaving them saddled with debt.
It's a side issue. The Harvard survey showed 58 percent
of Millennials saying the economy was a top issue and only 41 percent approving
Obama's handling of it. Like Romney, they seem to be saying, "It's the
economy, and we're not stupid."
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