Bush finds new ally in French candidate

By Tom Hundley
Published January 14, 2007

PARIS -- Improbable as it sounds today, by the time President Bush is rounding out his final term in office, his closest European ally and new best friend could be the president of France.

Nicolas Sarkozy, who on Sunday will clinch the ruling center-right party's nomination for the presidency, is an unabashed admirer of America. If Sarkozy can hold off Socialist Party candidate Segolene Royal in what is expected to be a tight contest this spring, the sour relations between the U.S. and France will undoubtedly sweeten.

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has paid a heavy price in the opinion polls for his chumminess with Bush, already has declared that this will be his final year in office. Gordon Brown, chancellor of the exchequer and Blair's all-but-certain successor, has said he will maintain Britain's "special relationship" with the U.S., but on a personal level the dour Scot is likely to keep his distance from Bush.

"New best friend" might be overstating it a bit, but David Martinon, Sarkozy's foreign policy adviser, says his boss' affection for the U.S. is genuine.

"I see a lot of American diplomats, politicians and journalists these days and I am telling them, yes, Nicolas Sarkozy is a friend of America. He admires American culture. He has no problem with money or success or working hard," Martinon said.

"He likes the idea of a second chance. In France, if you fail once, you are dead. In America, you have a second, third or fourth chance. You have a culture of taking risks that doesn't exist in France."

'Good meeting'

Last September, Sarkozy made a trip to the U.S. timed to coincide with the Sept. 11 commemorations. Along the way he met with Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, former President Bill Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, among others.

"With George Bush, it was a very good meeting--straight in the eye and direct," said Martinon. "And he very much liked Barack Obama. They talked about Darfur [Sudan], Iraq and immigration policy."

The ease with which Sarkozy has apparently established a comfort zone with a wide spectrum of American political leaders gives him a leg up on Royal, who has been committing one faux pas after another as she travels from the Middle East to China in a bid to bolster her thin foreign-policy resume.

While Royal's emergence as a serious presidential candidate has been as sudden as it is surprising, Sarkozy has been wearing his presidential ambitions on his sleeve for years. A television reporter once asked him whether he thought about the presidential palace when he shaved in the morning. "Not just when I shave," he replied.

On Sunday, Sarko, as he is known in France, takes a major step toward achieving that ambition when he officially becomes the presidential candidate of Union for a Popular Movement. The UMP conducted a two-week online primary to select its candidate, and the results will be announced at Sunday's party conference. Sarkozy was the only candidate.

Though Sarkozy was once a protege of President Jacques Chirac, the two are barely on speaking terms now. Chirac, 74, has refused to endorse Sarkozy, 51, and he has done nothing to quell chatter that he may yet attempt to spoil Sarkozy's chances by jumping into the race and seeking a third term as an independent. Political professionals believe the chances of this are nil--Chirac, they say, has no chance of beating Sarkozy, and the humiliation of losing would only further diminish his sagging legacy.

With Chirac a deeply unpopular figure in France these days, the falling out between the two men probably helps Sarkozy more than it hurts. On the campaign trail Sarkozy has spoken repeatedly of the need for a "rupture" with the past; Chirac embodies that past.

According to Sarkozy, the old way of doing business in France, aimed mainly at protecting its well-cushioned social welfare state, has left the country with a sclerotic economy, high unemployment and bleak prospects for the future.

Eric Besson, a member of the National Assembly from the Socialist Party, last month characterized Sarkozy as "an American neo-conservative with a French passport."

Sarkozy says there is nothing wrong with wanting to trim welfare benefits or encouraging people to work longer hours. He says he admires the flexibility of the American and British economic models, and wants to import some of their ideas.

The French are not so sure.

"I think French society wants to vote for a rupture, but they don't really want to have one. They are afraid, and that is why Sarkozy has been much more ambiguous about his economic proposals over the last few months," said Bruno Jeanbart, a political analyst with Opinion Way, a French polling institute.

Antithesis of Chirac

The son of a Hungarian refugee, Sarkozy always has seen himself as an outsider.

Short, aggressive and quick to take offense, Sarkozy is the antithesis of the tall, suave Chirac. He once told an interviewer that the slights he suffered in childhood shaped his personality.

As interior minister in the present government, Sarkozy made his name with a tough crackdown on crime and violence in the mainly African and Arab suburbs that surround France's major urban centers. He also has called for strict immigration quotas.

But many felt he was pandering to the far right when he referred to the young men who were setting cars ablaze in November 2005 as racaille--a harsh word that means scum or dregs--and threatened to deport them, even though most were French citizens.

The most recent polls show Royal with a slim lead over Sarkozy. A CSA/Le Parisien poll had Royal with 34 percent of the likely vote, Sarkozy with 32 percent and perennial far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen with 15 percent.

If no candidate gets 50 percent in the first round, the top two finishers will face each other in a May 6 runoff.