Hey, Wasn’t Iran Supposed to Have Beaten Us in a War by Now?

By Jim Geraghty

Wednesday, July 09, 2025

 

I don’t want to whistle past the graveyard, but . . . remember all those worries about Iran striking at America, either in the Middle East region or on U.S. soil?

 

Remember all the (entirely rational) fears of Iranian sleeper agents in America, ready to attack Americans close to home?

 

Everything’s been pretty quiet on that front lately, huh?

 

About a week ago, a senior Iranian government official said that the regime will not retaliate further for the United States’ attacks against its nuclear program.

 

Two days later, Iran launched a missile attack against an American military base in Oman. This saw some flights diverted from the busy international hub of Doha, in the United Arab Emirates, but no one was injured and President Donald Trump called it “very weak.”

 

Asked if Iran planned further retaliation, Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi said, “As long as there is no act of aggression being perpetrated by the United States against us, we will not respond again.”

 

There are plenty of reasons to not take Iranian government officials at their word, but so far, Iran hasn’t responded beyond that pro forma missile attack June 23. This may reflect that the Iranians have had enough and wish to de-escalate, or that they don’t have confidence in their ability to launch successful attacks against Americans, or that they’ve already seen what American airstrikes can do and aren’t eager for a second serving of precision munitions from the sky.

 

These days, pointing out that Tucker Carlson was wrong about something is akin to shooting fish in a barrel. But in the pantheon of bad predictions, Carlson’s June 4 assessment of the likely consequences of the U.S. bombing Iran belong right up there alongside Bill Maher’s 2003 declaration that “mysterious Asian diseases just don’t come knocking at your door,” and Larry C. Johnson’s July 10, 2001, New York Times op-ed titled, “The Declining Terrorist Threat.”

 

Carlson:

 

Iran may not have nukes, but it has a fearsome arsenal of ballistic missiles, many of which are aimed at US military installations in the Gulf, as well as at our allies and at critical energy infrastructure. The first week of a war with Iran could easily kill thousands of Americans. It could also collapse our economy, as surging oil prices trigger unmanageable inflation. Consider the effects of $30 gasoline.

 

But the second week of the war could be even worse. Iran isn’t Iraq or Libya, or even North Korea. While it’s often described as a rogue state, Iran has powerful allies. It’s now part of a global bloc called BRICS, which represents the majority of the world’s landmass, population, economy and military power. Iran has extensive military ties with Russia. It sells the overwhelming majority of its oil exports to China. Iran isn’t alone. An attack on Iran could very easily become a world war. We’d lose.

 

Iran’s ballistic missiles were largely taken out by Israel, and Iran had no significant strikes at our allies or critical energy infrastructure. Not only did the operation not kill thousands of Americans, Americans suffered no casualties. Our economy has not collapsed, and as of this morning, the average price of gasoline is $3.12 per gallon nationwide, about one-tenth of Carlson’s doomsday prediction. In fact, gas prices were the lowest in four years over the Independence Day holiday.

 

Iran’s so-called allies did not show up for the fight. Russia’s support for Iran turned out to be mostly statements. Similarly, China’s support for Iran was rhetorical. Bombing the Iranian nuclear weapons program did not become a world war, and we did not lose.

 

But other than that, Tucker Carlson nailed it.