By Ramesh Ponnuru
Friday, July 04, 2025
The Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill
President Trump is signing today will throw 11.8 million people off Medicaid. I don’t believe it, and neither should you. I wrote about
it in the Washington Post today.
We should keep in mind, first, that
the CBO has a poor track record in modeling the effects of health care
legislation. In 2017, the CBO helped sink a Republican plan to replace
Obamacare by noting that its repeal of the mandate for individuals to buy health
coverage would take 16 million people off the insurance rolls. Within two
years, it had revised that estimate down to 8 million. By 2020, the New
York Times was reporting that its effective repeal — President Donald Trump’s
tax cuts reduced the penalty for going uninsured to zero dollars — “didn’t really matter.” . . .
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