By Jim Geraghty
Friday, June 13, 2025
Last night’s Israeli air strike was surprising, but also
inevitable.
Israel could not live in a world where the Iranian regime
had nuclear weapons — or to put it another way, once the mullahs in Tehran had
a nuclear weapon, Israel was certain to die, it was just a matter of when. It
was just about inevitable that the world’s foremost sponsor of terrorism — the
primary sponsor of Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Yemen’s
Houthis, among others — would sooner or later use those weapons against Israel.
If America were hit by half-dozen nuclear bombs, the
effects would be devastating, but America would still function and carry on. If
Israel were hit by six nuclear bombs — say one each in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv,
Haifa, and three other targets of your choice — it would likely cease to exist
as a state. Almost three-quarters of Israelis live in cities. Israel’s land
area is smaller than New Hampshire.
Our Phil Klein examines why Israel concluded it had to act now:
One, Iran is more vulnerable than
ever, and so this was a unique window to act. Last October, Israel did
significant damage to Iran’s air defense systems without losing a single pilot.
This not only demonstrated Israel’s ability to attack Iran and get back, but
also made them an easier target going forward. Additionally, on two separate
occasions, Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles at Israel
and could not penetrate the joint air defenses of Israel and the U.S. Perhaps
most significantly, Israel neutralized Hamas and Hezbollah — Iran’s terrorist
proxies who were supposed to be in a position to launch tens of thousands of
missiles at Israel from the north and south while Iran attacked. The terror
groups are no longer capable of such an assault.
Two, President Trump was in the
White House. The United States has said it did not participate in tonight’s
strikes, and, at least officially, Trump’s position was to keep going ahead
with nuclear talks. But it’s very difficult to believe that this attack would
have happened if Trump pulled out all the stops to prevent Israel from taking
action, as no doubt Kamala Harris would have.
Three, and likely the most
significant, time was running out. Even the IAEA, hardly a Zionist outlet, had
assessed that Iran had ratcheted up enrichment — and its report found that Iran
had already enriched 400kg of uranium well above civilian levels and, with
further refinement, could have
enough for ten nuclear bombs. Iran rejected Trump’s nuclear deal offer, and
vowed never to give up enriching uranium. Academics might debate how serious
Iranian leaders have been in their decades of promises to wipe Israel off of
the map, but Israel cannot take a gamble. As Netanyahu put it, “If we don’t act
now, we simply won’t be here anymore. ‘Never again’ is now. We have learned the
lessons of history: when a foe says he intends to destroy you — believe him.”
I would add one other factor: Israel doesn’t have to
worry much about a major retaliatory attack coming from the direction of Syria,
because the nascent Syrian government and reconstituted military is in no shape to start a fight with
the IDF.
One other report from May, discussing released footage of
the air-defense systems around the Natanz enrichment center, a key Iranian
nuclear research site, that looks important in retrospect:
Sam Lair, a researcher with the
Martin Center, told Breaking Defense that while the glimpse was very brief, it
provided “the clearest look that we’ve had for air defenses for nuclear sites.”
He added that it was “remarkable” both for the amount of data able to be
gleaned and as a slip up by Iranian censors who historically have covered up
such information.
The information comes from a
roughly two-second clip of an Iranian command center, released as part of the
one-year anniversary of Israeli strikes on an Iranian drone facility located
near Natanz. In that clip, a trio of screens shows information from four radar
systems.
Using that information and
open-source imagery, Lair and his colleagues were able to geolocate the radars
and identify what kind of systems are in play around Natanz. Based on the
findings, the researchers said they believe the four radars are an Iranian Najm
804 radar, associated with the Khordad-15 air defense system; two derivatives
of the Soviet-era P-12 Spoon Rest A radars; and a Russian-origin Tor SAM
system.
But the most interesting aspect is
the fact the radars had to be displayed on different screens, a sign that the
systems — a hodgepodge of older radar designs — are not able to work
cooperatively.
“It is surprising that the defenses
for one of the most sophisticated sites is this siloed and fragmented,” Lair
said. “I expected a little more sophistication for such an area of importance.”
Iran may have attempted brinksmanship in a much more
vulnerable state than their leaders realized.
Judging
from the satellite photos released this morning, the Natanz nuclear
facility got hammered. There are reports that at
certain sites in Tehran, the air-defense systems did not respond at all.
Hey, when you buy Russian air-defense systems, you get Russian quality
control.
If you’re a low-ranking member of the Iranian military,
there are apparently an increasing number of exciting opportunities for
promotions. Just make sure your life insurance policies are updated and cover
IDF airstrikes or Mossad operations. Shortly after midnight, the X account of Ayatollah
Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, announced some promotions, and announced
the death — er, “martyrdom” — of the chief of staff of the Armed Forces,
commander in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, commander of the
Khatam al-Anbiya Central HQ. In the culture propagated by the Iranian regime,
being martyred by the Israelis is a great and noble death, and I suspect the
IDF is eager to oblige any other Iranian military leaders.
Last
night at 9 p.m., Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement that
emphasized the U.S. had no role in the attacks, and that some observers found
striking for its lack of any statement of support of Israel:
“Tonight, Israel took unilateral
action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top
priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that
they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense. President Trump
and the Administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and
remain in close contact with our regional partners. Let me be clear: Iran
should not target U.S. interests or personnel.”
But subsequent statements from President Trump indicated
support for Israel, and additional warnings to Iran. President Trump’s 5:56 a.m. post on Truth Social:
I gave Iran chance after chance to
make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to “just do it,” but no
matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t
get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything they know,
anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most
lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a
lot of it, with much more to come – And they know how to use it. Certain
Iranian hardliner’s spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to
happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse! There has already
been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this
slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come
to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what
was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST
DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!
And
the president spoke to CNN’s Dana Bash by phone this morning:
“We of course support Israel,
obviously and supported it like nobody has ever supported it,” Trump said
during our brief phone call. “Iran should have listened to me when I said — you
know I gave them, I don’t know if you know but I gave them a 60-day warning and
today is day 61,” he added. “They should now come to the table to make a deal
before it’s too late. It will be too late for them. You know the people I was
dealing with are dead, the hardliners,” the president said. He would not
specify which people he was referring to. Asked if this was a result of
Israel’s attack last night, President Trump responded sarcastically: “They
didn’t die of the flu; they didn’t die of Covid.”
Sorry, mullahs, but tacos are not on the menu today.
Meanwhile, Out in Los Angeles . . .
I almost wonder if the Israeli attack on Iran and likely
counterattack won’t be as big a deal in the U.S. news cycle as it normally
would be, because the media isn’t finished arguing about California Senator
Alex Padilla getting shoved out of a Kristi Noem press conference and getting
handcuffed.
If Gavin Newsom had walked into that room, everyone would
have known who he is. If California’s other senator, Adam Schiff, had walked
into that room, almost everyone would have known who he is, because he was on
television nonstop during Trump’s first term. Kamala Harris, Karen Bass, Maxine
Waters — there are a bunch of California officials who have become widely
recognizable.
As I noted yesterday, Padilla was on the Los Angeles City
Council for almost seven years, in the California state senate for eight years,
was California secretary of state for six years, and has been a U.S. senator
since January 2021. And yet apparently, no one in Noem’s entourage, or anyone
else in the room in the Los Angeles federal building, recognized him as a
senator.
Senator Padilla, Tim Kaine
knows how you feel.
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