Trump’s Feeble Threats Are Not Credible

By Noah Rothman

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

 

Donald Trump’s aides and allies continue to claim that the versions of the Iran War-ending Memorandum of Understanding presently circulating in Western media outlets do not reflect the text of the actual document. Perhaps the language in the real MOU departs from the drafts that have been made public, but it’s unlikely that those departures are significant or substantive. It stands to reason that the administration could not suppress the most sought-after document on earth.

 

So far, public reporting on the MOU indicates that it is an instrument of American surrender, and we have little reason to question those reports’ conclusions. After all, when the president talks about why he endorsed it, he articulates the logic of capitulation.

 

“The alternative” to the MOU, Trump told reporters at the G7 conference in France, “would be a worldwide depression.” There are, of course, “stupid people” who “want to have a worldwide depression.” And because they’re “stupid,” they don’t understand that “you can only go so far.” If you “drive somebody into the ground, and a lot of bad things happen.”

 

First, the Strait of Hormuz “would never open.” After all, Iran retains its capacity to menace the strait with mines and rockets and drones, and the president lacks the requisite will to do what America has done in the past and reopen the strait through force. “So, the strait would never be open — it wouldn’t be open for a long time.”

 

It’s hard to argue with that logic. If the administration doesn’t have the stomach for a dangerous campaign designed to rob Iran of its last point of leverage over the West — even one that entailed a return to high-tempo combat operations against Iran’s missile and drone launch and production facilities — but Iran does, the United States must retreat.

 

And yet, the president still insists that he retains the capability to deter Iranian aggression and even coerce Iran into compliance through the threat of military force.

 

“No, it’s not final,” the president declared when asked if the MOU was still subject to revision. “It’s a memorandum of understanding. And if I don’t like it, we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head.”

 

This is a hollow threat. If the terms of the MOU resemble those that have been publicly reported, Trump will have deprived himself of the ability to return to war even if he wanted to.

 

Forget the parts of the MOU that are supposed to be resolved in 30 days or even 60 days. Multi-stage agreements that require the compliance of Middle Eastern terrorists tend not to progress beyond stage one. And the first stage here gives Iran everything it wants and more.

 

Stage one saves Hezbollah from its fate, constrains the Israelis in Southern Lebanon, and will provide a ready-made way to accuse Israel of being the obstacle to peace in the region if Jerusalem responds proportionately to Hezbollah’s inevitable future attacks. It lifts the naval blockade that throttled the Iranian economy and deprived the IRGC of funds it desperately needs to maintain cohesion. It compels the U.S. Treasury to issue immediate waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, refined products, and petroleum derivatives. And it puts an end to Operation Economic Fury, lifting restrictions on Iranian “banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.”

 

All that is required of Iran right now is that it “immediately take steps” to “ensure the movement” of merchant vessels through the strait. But not really. After all, everyone must take “into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.”

 

Let’s say the MOU is signed and operative and, 30 days from today, Iran has not managed to restore the “pre-war volume” of traffic through the strait (something Tehran may not even be able to control). What then? Does anyone believe that Donald Trump will admit that he was hoodwinked in this process? The damage to his credibility will have been done, and Iran will already be enjoying financial relief.

 

The MOU abandons all the red lines the president went to war to secure. Some might argue it even attempts to roll back the clock to February 27. “Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program,” the MOU supposedly reads, “and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.” The document is focused almost exclusively on bribing Iran into withdrawing its threat to shipping in the strait.

 

But if that threat does not dematerialize, will the president credibly threaten to go back to the conditions that were, by his estimation, destined to result in a “worldwide depression?”

 

When it comes to Iran, the American stick is no longer a valid instrument of statecraft. Trump has invalidated it. But American carrots are still enticing enough to induce Iranian compliance with the MOU’s terms. After all, what is there to comply with? All they have to do to reap the benefits of Trump’s surrender is nothing at all.