By Noah Rothman
Monday, April 06, 2026
Apart from nuclear weapons, there was no military program
the Islamic Republic of Iran prioritized quite like its layered anti-air
defense network. Its Russian- and Chinese-supplied radars and surface-to-air
missile systems were formidable and believed to be capable of neutralizing
even America’s most advanced aircraft. As recently as 2024, observers believed
that the costs associated with an air war over Iran would be “high.” So it is, indeed, remarkable that Iran finally
managed to down a coalition aircraft on Friday . . . only 13,000 sorties into
the campaign.
“It was a high-profile setback for the Trump
administration,” the New York Times report said of the downing of a U.S.
F-15E Strike Eagle from enemy fire. After all, administration officials have
“repeatedly sought to project American air supremacy in the war,” the Times
determined — even if they never said as much outright. In fact, administration
and Pentagon officials have consistently stressed that the U.S. and Israel
maintain “air superiority” over Iran, which is a distinction with a
difference.
Still, the hit on a U.S. fighter jet and the ejection of
its two crewmen significantly complicated the coalition’s ongoing combat
operations. What followed, however, was one of the most impressive
search-and-rescue operations in U.S. military history.
The U.S. dispatched an unspecified number of low-flying
aircraft to hunt for the downed service personnel, some of which took fire. At
least two Blackhawk helicopters were hit during the operation,
although they managed to land safely. An A-10 Warthog crashed into the Persian Gulf after it was
also hit, although its pilot was recovered.
Within hours of the crash, U.S. operators located the F-15E pilot, exfiltrating him from deep within
Iranian territory with the aid of two military helicopters. But the aircraft’s
weapons system officer — callsign “Dude 44” — was nowhere to be found.
The Iranians were certainly looking for him. When the
news of the successful attack broke on Iranian state television, the anchor
enlisted the support of “all tribespeople and villagers” to help capture
the U.S. airman alive in exchange for a “precious prize.” As a hostage, “Dude
44” would provide the Iranians with additional leverage over Donald Trump. But
the broadcast served as a tacit admission that the Iranians needed help finding
their target, too.
The weapons service officer reportedly did his utmost to
conceal his location. After landing, the unidentified airman scrambled to an
elevated promontory, where he briefly activated his emergency beacon before
retreating into a mountain crevasse, at which point his signal became spotty.
But on Saturday morning, despite initial concern that the Iranians could be
laying a trap for U.S. forces, the officer’s location and identity were
confirmed. The president swiftly gave the go-ahead for a rescue operation.
According to the Wall Street Journal’s account, the Pentagon
immediately shifted its targeting priorities away from Iran’s missile-launch
systems, allowing Iran to “fire more weapons than usual.” An initial attempt to
access the area where the airman was believed to be hiding out had to be
aborted when two H-6 helicopters came under small-arms ground fire. The
successful rescue mission would need to be more robust.
And it was. U.S. forces dispatched two special operations
aircraft designed to establish improvised forward-operating bases deep inside
enemy territory (using an airstrip inside Iran that “Special Operations forces
had previously developed for possible rescues or other contingencies,” the New York Times reported). But, upon landing, “their
nose wheels sank into the ground and couldn’t take off,” the Journal revealed.
Three more planes with special operations forces were subsequently
dispatched to the area as U.S. bombers dropped more than 100
precision-guided 2,000-pound bombs around the periphery.
The Iranian effort to capture the downed officer was
substantial, although it was frustrated by a CIA-led misinformation campaign.
“As the aviator hid from Iranian forces, the agency spread false word inside
the country that the U.S. military had already located the downed airman and
was preparing to move him overland for exfiltration,” the Journal confirmed.
U.S. air strikes on Iranian convoys and commandos on the ground managed to fend
off Iranian forces long enough for the U.S. to recover its downed airman. After
exfiltrating the serviceman, U.S. forces destroyed the two aircraft that were
still stuck in the sand as well as two MH-6 Little Bird helicopters.
All told, the United States lost five aircraft beyond the
first F-15E to the rescue mission, while others suffered significant but
repairable damage. And yet, no U.S. lives were lost in either the
search-and-rescue operation or the raid that brought it to a conclusion, even
though U.S. forces were operating deep inside Iran just 30 miles outside the
major city of Isfahan. Despite the proximity to a strategic Iranian metro area
and the enlistment of Iran’s citizenry, the Islamic Republic’s forces failed to
achieve their goal.
While the rescue is impressive, critics of this war may
wonder what strategic benefits the U.S. could derive from this mission. Sure,
it’s nice that we recovered our airmen, but we’re still down six manned
aircraft, and the Iranians have demonstrated the capacity to neutralize U.S.
air assets. What have we really achieved?
Over the weekend, former CENTCOM commander and retired Marine Corps General Frank McKenzie offered his own
perspective on the “hard lesson for Iran” to which U.S. forces treated the
Islamic Republic.
He speculated that the Iranian public’s failure to heed
their leaders’ call may be “a sign of disaffection” among the people. He
observed that U.S. forces executed an operation with peerless competence that
no other military on earth could even contemplate. And, by way of perspective,
he added that “it takes a year to build an aircraft” while “it takes 200 years
to build a military tradition where you don’t leave anybody behind.” The
contrast the U.S. has set against the Islamist regime in Tehran, which valorizes
martyrdom and is presently sending twelve-year-olds to their deaths, could prove
clarifying.
Additionally, McKenzie sounded a sanguine note about the
course the war has taken so far. “If you had given me this situation at plus-30
days, I would have rejected it as being too optimistic by far,” the general said, drawing on his experience at CENTCOM. “I
think we’re on track here,” he continued. “This campaign is moving very
effectively, and I believe the pace will pick up every day.” As the rescue
mission indicates, the Iranians have little ability to impose costs on American
or Israeli forces sufficient to change their behavior. The Strait of Hormuz and
the economic costs of its closure are Tehran’s last point of leverage, and its
control over that waterway is eroding.
“You want to reduce Iran’s ability to fire short-range
rockets and missiles into the Strait against warships. You want to take out
their fast attack craft,” McKenzie said of what he called “the precursor of the
initial steps” to reopen the Strait by force. The most active stages of that
campaign would likely include the “use of ground troops [that] would probably
be along the line of raids” to disable Iran’s capacity to close the strait.
McKenzie believes that Trump has the will to order such an operation. As this
rescue mission demonstrated, the United States clearly possesses the means.
The Iranian regime functionaries and their allies who
fixated on the loss of American aircraft over the last 72 hours are missing the
forest for the trees. Giving America the chance to show that it can establish a
forward-operating base inside Iranian territory from which U.S. ground forces
can execute their objectives almost unmolested must temper Tehran’s enthusiasm
for these paltry few U.S. losses.
The consequences of that reality may be lost on the
West’s cynics. But for Iranian officials, the fact that U.S. troops can set up
camp in their backyard could prove a sobering realization.
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